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Notts County v Oxford United

Notts County

1–2Full time

Oxford United

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Meadow Lane

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Notts County 1–2 Oxford United OXFORD UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oxford United win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.539

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.670

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oxford United win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oxford United was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Notts County v Oxford United
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Rod McDonald · Notts County
19′18′ and it is 0–1: Mark Harris on the scoresheet for Oxford United. 0–1 · 12–20–67
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Notts County 0–1 Oxford United · Mark Harris
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
21′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Oliver Cooper · Notts County
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–69
37′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Louie Sibley · Oxford United
45′HALF-TIME Notts County 0–1 Oxford United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Notts County · On: Nicholas Tsaroulla · Off: James Gibbons Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Notts County · On: Rory Finneran · Off: Oliver Cooper
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Notts County · On: Max Sanders · Off: Matt Palmer
46′SECOND HALF Notts County 0–1 Oxford United
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Max Sanders · Notts County
56′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Jacob Bedeau · Notts County
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Oxford United · On: Kai Andrews · Off: Louie Sibley
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Notts County · On: Luka Smyth · Off: Conor·Grant Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Oxford United · On: L. Snowden · Off: Mo Missanga Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Oxford United · On: Gatlin O Donkor · Off: Tyler Goodrham Corrected
69′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Rory Finneran · Notts County
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oxford United · On: Luka Lynch · Off: Siriki Dembele
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oxford United · On: Brodie Spencer · Off: Jack Currie
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Lucas Ness · Notts County
80′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
82′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Peter Kioso · Oxford United
87′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
88′Oxford United ahead on 88′ through Cameron Brannagan. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Michał Helik · Oxford United
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Notts County 0–2 Oxford United · Mark Harris
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Notts County 0–2 Oxford United · Cameron Brannagan
90′We published Oxford United at 40%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′Rory Finneran scores for Notts County on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Notts County 1–2 Oxford United · Cameron Brannagan
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Notts County 1–2 Oxford United · Rory Finneran (assist Nicholas Tsaroulla)
FTFULL TIME Notts County 1–2 Oxford United
FTNotts County 1–2 Oxford United · Oxford United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Notts County win34%

Draw25%

Oxford United win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Meadow Lane

Referee · Carl Brook

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Notts County

3-4-2-1

1 J. Belshaw

12 L. Ness

3 R. McDonald

4 J. Bedeau

2 J. Gibbons

18 M. Palmer

8 O. Cooper

26 I. Samuels-Smith

7 C. Roberts

11 C. Grant

9 D. Kanu

Coach · Martin Paterson

Substitutes

10 · R. Longelo-Mbule

6 · M. H. Sanders

15 · J. Evans

25 · N. Tsaroulla

14 · D. Lipsiuc

27 · R. Finneran

19 · L. Smyth

Oxford United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Cumming

30 P. Kioso

6 M. Helik

3 C. Brown

26 J. Currie

8 C. Brannagan

32 L. Sibley

57 M. Missanga

11 T. Goodrham

23 S. Dembele

9 M. Harris

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · S. Eastwood

2 · S. Long

15 · B. Spencer

4 · K. Andrews

19 · G. O'Donkor

20 · L. Lynch

27 · L. Snowden

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Notts County

3-4-2-1

1 J. Belshaw

12 L. Ness

3 R. McDonald

4 J. Bedeau

2 J. Gibbons

18 M. Palmer

8 O. Cooper

26 I. Samuels-Smith

7 C. Roberts

11 C. Grant

9 D. Kanu

Coach · Martin Paterson

Substitutes

10 · R. Longelo-Mbule

6 · M. H. Sanders

15 · J. Evans

25 · N. Tsaroulla

14 · D. Lipsiuc

27 · R. Finneran

19 · L. Smyth

Oxford United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Cumming

30 P. Kioso

6 M. Helik

3 C. Brown

26 J. Currie

8 C. Brannagan

32 L. Sibley

57 M. Missanga

11 T. Goodrham

23 S. Dembele

9 M. Harris

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · S. Eastwood

2 · S. Long

15 · B. Spencer

4 · K. Andrews

19 · G. O'Donkor

20 · L. Lynch

27 · L. Snowden

Our number · oxford united winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Oxford United a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oxford united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Notts County win	34%	39%	−4
Draw	25%	28%	−2
Oxford United win	40%	33%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+2
Notts County or draw	60%	67%	−7
Notts County clean sheet	25%	–	–
Oxford United clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.9 9.4 6.7 3.2 1 8.6 11.9 8.4 4.0 2 5.5 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Notts County down, Oxford United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Notts County at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Oxford United away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Notts County, 1.43 for Oxford United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:12. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League One

NOTTS COUNTY

DWDDLL2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

OXFORD UNITED

DWLWWD2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4