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Milton Keynes Dons v Reading

Milton Keynes Dons

1–5Full time

Reading

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Stadium MK

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Milton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading READING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reading win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reading win at 38%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Reading 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
4′KICK-OFF Milton Keynes Dons v Reading
31′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Haydon Roberts · Reading
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Milton Keynes Dons 0–0 Reading · P. Lane
41′P. Lane scores for Reading on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Reading · P. Lane
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Reading win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
44′We said Reading at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Reading
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Milton Keynes Dons 0–2 Reading · Cohen Bramall
49′SECOND HALF Milton Keynes Dons 0–2 Reading
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Alex Gilbey · Off: Daniel Barlaser
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Milton Keynes Dons · On: ibrahim fullah · Off: Curtis Nelson
61′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Haydon Roberts · Reading
61′⚽ GOAL · 38' Milton Keynes Dons 0–2 Reading · P. Lane (assist Udoka Godwin-Malife)
61′⚽ GOAL · 47' Milton Keynes Dons 0–2 Reading · Cohen Bramall
61′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Alex Gilbey · Off: Daniel Barlaser
61′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Milton Keynes Dons · On: ibrahim fullah · Off: Curtis Nelson
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Milton Keynes Dons 0–3 Reading · Kyreece Joshua Lisbie
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Marvin Ekpiteta · Milton Keynes Dons
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Milton Keynes Dons 0–3 Reading · Kyreece Joshua Lisbie
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Reading · On: Jacob Brown · Off: Jamie Reid
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Samuel Silvera · Off: Gethin Jones
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Milton Keynes Dons 0–4 Reading · Kyreece Joshua Lisbie
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Jack Sanders · Off: Marvin Ekpiteta
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Milton Keynes Dons 1–4 Reading · Aaron Collins (assist Samuel Silvera)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Reading · On: Daniel·Kyerewaa · Off: Haydon Roberts Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Reading · On: Randell Williams · Off: Kyreece Joshua Lisbie Corrected
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Milton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading · Aaron Collins
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Milton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading · Jacob Brown
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Reading · On: Liam Fraser · Off: Andy Rinomhota
FTFULL TIME Milton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading
FTMilton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading · Reading win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Milton Keynes Dons win36%

Draw25%

Reading win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stadium MK

Referee · Matthew Corlett

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Milton Keynes Dons

3-1-4-2

23 W. Dennis

5 C. Goode

35 C. Nelson

21 M. Ekpiteta

4 D. Barlaser

2 G. Jones

26 B. Wiles

24 R. Wintle

15 C. Bramall

9 S. Nombe

10 A. Collins

Coach · Paul Warne

Substitutes

51 · S. Stacey

32 · J. Sanders

8 · A. Gilbey

38 · K. Lewis-Burgess

22 · I. Fullah

47 · S. Troso

17 · S. Silvera

Reading

4-2-3-1

1 J. Pereira

2 U. Godwin-Malife

15 P. O'Connor

16 B. Ward

5 H. Roberts

10 L. Wing

4 A. Rinomhota

19 K. Lisbie

28 J. Stokes

32 P. Lane

9 J. Reid

Coach · Leam Richardson

Substitutes

25 · J. Stevens

23 · C. Masterson

11 · D. Kyerewaa

8 · C. Savage

6 · L. Fraser

14 · R. Williams

18 · J. Brown

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Milton Keynes Dons

3-1-4-2

23 W. Dennis

5 C. Goode

35 C. Nelson

21 M. Ekpiteta

4 D. Barlaser

2 G. Jones

26 B. Wiles

24 R. Wintle

15 C. Bramall

9 S. Nombe

10 A. Collins

Coach · Paul Warne

Substitutes

51 · S. Stacey

32 · J. Sanders

8 · A. Gilbey

38 · K. Lewis-Burgess

22 · I. Fullah

47 · S. Troso

17 · S. Silvera

Reading

4-2-3-1

1 J. Pereira

2 U. Godwin-Malife

15 P. O'Connor

16 B. Ward

5 H. Roberts

10 L. Wing

4 A. Rinomhota

19 K. Lisbie

28 J. Stokes

32 P. Lane

9 J. Reid

Coach · Leam Richardson

Substitutes

25 · J. Stevens

23 · C. Masterson

11 · D. Kyerewaa

8 · C. Savage

6 · L. Fraser

14 · R. Williams

18 · J. Brown

Our number · reading winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Reading a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · reading win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milton Keynes Dons win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−1
Reading win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−6
Milton Keynes Dons or draw	62%	62%	0
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet	25%	–	–
Reading clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 9.1 6.3 2.9 1 8.8 11.9 8.2 3.8 2 5.9 8.0 5.5 2.6 3 2.7 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milton Keynes Dons down, Reading across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Milton Keynes Dons at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Reading away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Milton Keynes Dons, 1.39 for Reading. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League One

MILTON KEYNES DONS

DDLDDD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

READING

WWLWDD5–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4