Milton Keynes Dons v Luton

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Luton win at 43%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Luton was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
3. 2′KICK-OFF Milton Keynes Dons v Luton
4. 25′Milton Keynes Dons find the net on 25′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–17
5. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Luton
6. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Luton win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
7. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Milton Keynes Dons win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Luton win 17%)
8. 26′We said Luton at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 61–23–16
10. 35′We said Luton at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Luton win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
12. 45′HALF-TIME Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Luton
13. 46′SECOND HALF Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Luton
14. 52′We said Luton at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
15. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Ryan Wintle · Milton Keynes Dons
16. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Ben Wiles · Off: ibrahim fullah
17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Luton · On: Callum Marshall · Off: Nahki Wells
18. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons
19. 67′Luton have had 14 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
20. 68′We said Luton at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
21. 71′We said Luton at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 18–59–22
22. 71′Jordan Clark scores for Luton on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–59–22
23. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Luton
24. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Luton win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
25. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Milton Keynes Dons win 18%)
26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Luton · On: E. Lawrence · Off: Jamie Donley
27. 79′79′: Aaron Collins on the scoresheet for Milton Keynes Dons, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–1
28. 79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 85–14–1
29. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton · Aaron Collins (penalty)
30. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Luton win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
31. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Milton Keynes Dons win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
32. 80′Luton have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–1
33. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Luton · On: Devante Cole · Off: Kasey Palmer
34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Luton · On: Isaiah Jones · Off: Mads Juel Andersen
35. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Luton · On: Jake Richards · Off: Tudor Mendel-Idowu
36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Cohen Bramall · Off: Samuel Silvera
37. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Gethin Jones · Off: Aaron Collins
38. 95′23 shots for Luton, 11 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
39. FTFULL TIME Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton
40. FTMilton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton · Luton win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.