Mansfield Town v Oxford United

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Oxford United win at 40%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Oxford United 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
3. 1′KICK-OFF Mansfield Town v Oxford United
4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh · Mansfield Town
5. 35′34′: Luka Lynch on the scoresheet for Oxford United, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
6. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Peter Kioso · Oxford United
7. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Mansfield Town 0–1 Oxford United · Luka Lynch
8. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
9. 36′We said Oxford United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
10. 36′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
11. 43′We said Oxford United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
12. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
13. 45′HALF-TIME Mansfield Town 0–1 Oxford United
14. 46′SECOND HALF Mansfield Town 0–1 Oxford United
15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mansfield Town · On: Stephen McLaughlin · Off: Adedeji Oshilaja Corrected
16. 49′8 shots for Mansfield Town, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
17. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mansfield Town · On: Stephen McLaughlin · Off: George Abbott
18. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Jonathan Russell · Mansfield Town
19. 60′We said Oxford United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Oxford United · On: Mo Missanga · Off: Luka Lynch
21. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Oxford United · On: Gatlin O Donkor · Off: Louie Sibley
22. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Mansfield Town · On: Tyler Roberts · Off: Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh
23. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
24. 71′We said Oxford United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
25. 71′Mansfield Town have had 13 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
26. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Gatlin O Donkor · Oxford United
27. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mansfield Town · On: Frazer Blake-Tracy · Off: Ryan Sweeney
28. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mansfield Town · On: Regan·Hendry · Off: Jonathan Russell
29. 76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Oxford United
30. 77′Oxford United are down to ten from 75′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 1–14–85
31. 77′We said Oxford United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
32. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Oxford United · On: Jack Currie · Off: Mark Harris
33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Mansfield Town · On: George Maris · Off: Elliott Hewitt
34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Oxford United · On: Sam Long · Off: Siriki Dembele
35. 82′We said Oxford United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
36. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
37. 83′We said Oxford United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 9–81–10
38. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford United
39. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Oxford United win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
40. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Oxford United win 10%)
41. 84′Mansfield Town level it on 82′ through Michael Smith. 1–1. 1–1 · 8–83–9
42. 84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Oxford United
43. 85′A second red card for Oxford United on 84′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 8–84–8
44. 86′We said Oxford United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–86–7
45. 87′16 shots for Mansfield Town, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 6–87–7
46. 91′We said Oxford United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
47. 91′20 shots for Mansfield Town, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–92–4
48. FTFULL TIME Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford United
49. FTMansfield Town 1–1 Oxford United · Oxford United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.