Mansfield Town v Notts County prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mansfield TownDrawNotts County

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mansfield Town 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mansfield Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mansfield Town 47%, draw 26%, Notts County 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Mansfield Town v Notts CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Mansfield Town win47%

Draw26%

Notts County win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueOne Call Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mansfield Town

Notts County

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League One

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Mansfield Town	11	+4	18
19	Notts County	11	−3	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Blackburn Rovers will have big Newcastle United transfer envy after Notts County revelationFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:40 · Blackburn, Newcastle, Notts County

BBC to show Cray Wanderers v Stockport & Altrincham v Notts CountyBBC Sport · 22 Oct 17:31 · Cray Wanderers, Altrincham, Notts County

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mansfield town winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Mansfield Town a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mansfield Town v Notts County~~1.50 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~9 v 19

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mansfield Town win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Notts County win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Mansfield Town or draw	72%	–	–
Mansfield Town clean sheet	34%	–	–
Notts County clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 8.3 4.5 1 11.4 12.1 6.5 2.4 2 8.4 9.0 4.8 3 4.3 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mansfield Town down, Notts County across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mansfield Town at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Notts County away: 0.80 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Mansfield Town, 1.08 for Notts County. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAN 1–0 NOT · NOT 1–4 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

MANSFIELD TOWN

DDWDWW0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 4–1

NOTTS COUNTY

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Huddersfield	12	+13	25
2	Stockport County	12	+12	23
3	Bradford	12	+5	22
4	Plymouth	13	+2	22
5	Reading	12	+12	21
6	Cambridge United	12	+3	20
7	Oxford United	10	+8	19
8	Sheffield Wednesday	11	+8	18
9	Mansfield Town	11	+4	18
10	Luton	11	+2	17
11	Burton Albion	13	−1	17
12	Stevenage	11	+4	15
13	Leicester	11	0	15
14	Wycombe	12	−4	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	+2	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	−11	13
17	Doncaster	11	−1	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	−6	12
19	Notts County	11	−3	11
20	Blackpool	11	−4	11
21	Peterborough	12	−10	10
22	Bromley	11	−16	9
23	Barnsley	11	−10	8
24	Wigan	11	−9	7