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Mansfield Town v Bromley

Mansfield Town

2–1Full time

Bromley

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Field Mill

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley MANSFIELD TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mansfield Town win~~54%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.324

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.307

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mansfield Town win at 54%.
2′Much as we predicted: Mansfield Town was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
2′KICK-OFF Mansfield Town v Bromley
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Markus Ifill · Bromley
21′⚽ GOAL · 23' Mansfield Town 0–0 Bromley · Stephen McLaughlin
24′Mansfield Town ahead on 22′ through Stephen McLaughlin. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Mansfield Town 1–0 Bromley · Stephen McLaughlin
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Mansfield Town win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
30′John Joshua Mckiernan scores for Bromley on 30′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 47–30–23
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Mansfield Town 1–1 Bromley · John Joshua Mckiernan (assist Mitchell Pinnock)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Mansfield Town win: 54% at kick-off, 47% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' John Joshua Mckiernan · Bromley
37′13.0 shots for Mansfield Town, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 45–32–23
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mansfield Town win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Mansfield Town 1–1 Bromley
46′SECOND HALF Mansfield Town 1–1 Bromley
48′We said Mansfield Town at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–36–22
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley · John Joshua Mckiernan
51′⚽ GOAL · 49' Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley · Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh (assist Michael Smith)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Liam Thompson · Mansfield Town
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mansfield Town · On: Regan·Hendry · Off: Liam Thompson
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Louis Reed · Mansfield Town
62′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Markus Ifill · Bromley
62′⚽ GOAL · 22' Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley · Stephen McLaughlin (assist Jonathan Russell)
62′⚽ GOAL · 30' Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley · John Joshua Mckiernan (assist Mitchell Pinnock)
62′🟨 YELLOW · 32' John Joshua Mckiernan · Bromley
62′⚽ GOAL · 49' Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley · Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh (assist Michael Smith)
62′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Liam Thompson · Mansfield Town
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mansfield Town · On: Regan·Hendry · Off: Liam Thompson
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Louis Reed · Mansfield Town
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bromley · On: Jodi Jones · Off: corey whitely
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mansfield Town · On: Frazer Blake-Tracy · Off: Stephen McLaughlin
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bromley · On: Nicke Kabamba · Off: Victor Adeboyejo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bromley · On: William Hondermarck · Off: Kamil Amadu Conteh
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bromley · On: Michael Cheek · Off: John Joshua Mckiernan
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bromley · On: Mikel Miller · Off: Mitchell Pinnock
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Frazer Blake-Tracy · Mansfield Town
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mansfield Town · On: Tyler Roberts · Off: Rhys Oates
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mansfield Town · On: George Abbott · Off: Louis Reed
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Mansfield Town · On: Kyle Knoyle · Off: Adedeji Oshilaja
94′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Nicke Kabamba · Bromley
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' George Saville · Bromley
FTFULL TIME Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley
FTMansfield Town 2–1 Bromley · Mansfield Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mansfield Town win54%

Draw23%

Bromley win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Field Mill

Referee · Simon Mather

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mansfield Town

3-1-4-2

1 L. Roberts

4 E. Hewitt

23 A. Oshilaja

5 R. Sweeney

25 L. Reed

22 N. Moriah-Welsh

13 J. Russell

16 L. Thompson

3 S. McLaughlin

18 R. Oates

14 M. Smith

Coach · Nigel Clough

Substitutes

2 · K. Knoyle

20 · F. Blake-Tracy

24 · R. Hendry

8 · L. Bolton

33 · G. Abbott

19 · T. Roberts

10 · G. Maris

Bromley

4-2-3-1

31 O. Mason

12 M. Ifill

5 O. Sowunmi

21 K. Grant

17 J. Mendy

22 K. Conteh

6 G. Saville

18 C. Whitely

28 J. J. McKiernan

11 M. Pinnock

20 V. Adeboyejo

Coach · Andy Woodman

Substitutes

1 · G. Smith

45 · A. Jackson

10 · J. Jones

16 · W. Hondermarck

9 · M. Cheek

14 · N. Kabamba

19 · M. Miller

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mansfield Town

3-1-4-2

1 L. Roberts

4 E. Hewitt

23 A. Oshilaja

5 R. Sweeney

25 L. Reed

22 N. Moriah-Welsh

13 J. Russell

16 L. Thompson

3 S. McLaughlin

18 R. Oates

14 M. Smith

Coach · Nigel Clough

Substitutes

2 · K. Knoyle

20 · F. Blake-Tracy

24 · R. Hendry

8 · L. Bolton

33 · G. Abbott

19 · T. Roberts

10 · G. Maris

Bromley

4-2-3-1

31 O. Mason

12 M. Ifill

5 O. Sowunmi

21 K. Grant

17 J. Mendy

22 K. Conteh

6 G. Saville

18 C. Whitely

28 J. J. McKiernan

11 M. Pinnock

20 V. Adeboyejo

Coach · Andy Woodman

Substitutes

1 · G. Smith

45 · A. Jackson

10 · J. Jones

16 · W. Hondermarck

9 · M. Cheek

14 · N. Kabamba

19 · M. Miller

Our number · mansfield town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market55%

Us54%

~~Market~~55%

We make Mansfield Town a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mansfield town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mansfield Town win	54%	55%	−1
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Bromley win	24%	21%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	36%	−1
Mansfield Town or draw	76%	79%	−3
Mansfield Town clean sheet	32%	–	–
Bromley clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 5.9 3.4 1 9.4 10.5 6.0 2.3 2 8.5 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.2 5.9 3.3 4 2.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mansfield Town down, Bromley across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mansfield Town at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bromley away: 1.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Mansfield Town, 1.15 for Bromley. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League One

MANSFIELD TOWN

LWLLDD1–2 · 5–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

BROMLEY

DLLLDW1–1 · 2–7 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4