Luton v Leicester

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Luton win at 49%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Luton was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
3. 1′KICK-OFF Luton v Leicester
4. 30′Leicester find the net on 30′. 0–0 · 43–30–27
5. 39′We published Luton at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
6. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Luton 1–0 Leicester
7. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Luton win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
8. 40′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
9. 41′39′: Nahki Wells on the scoresheet for Luton, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–7
10. 43′We published Luton at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
11. 45′HALF-TIME Luton 1–0 Leicester
12. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: Wes Burns · Off: Caleb Okoli
13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: Will Smallbone · Off: Louis Page
14. 45′SECOND HALF Luton 1–0 Leicester
15. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Luton win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
16. 64′We published Luton at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Luton · On: Jake Richards · Off: Tudor Mendel-Idowu
18. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' John Lundstram · Leicester
19. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Leicester · On: Conor Chaplin · Off: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
20. 75′We published Luton at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
21. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Luton · On: Callum Marshall · Off: Nahki Wells
22. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Luton win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
23. 81′We published Luton at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
24. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Leicester · On: Liam Cullen · Off: K. Doyle
25. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Luton · On: E. Lawrence · Off: Kasey Palmer
26. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Leicester
27. 86′A red card for Leicester on 85′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 94–6–0
28. 88′We published Luton at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
29. 90′We said Luton at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–91–4
30. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Luton 1–1 Leicester
31. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Luton win: 49% at kick-off, 6% now
32. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Luton win 96%)
33. 91′Leicester level it on 90′ through Liam Cullen. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–92–3
34. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Leicester · On: Bobby Reid · Off: Warren O'Hora
35. 92′We said Luton at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
36. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Wes Burns · Leicester
37. 95′90′: Callum Marshall on the scoresheet for Luton. 1–1 · 2–97–1
38. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Luton 2–1 Leicester · Callum Marshall
39. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Luton win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
40. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Luton win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
41. FTFULL TIME Luton 2–1 Leicester
42. FTLuton 2–1 Leicester · Luton win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.