Leyton Orient v Blackpool prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Leyton Orient 2–0 Blackpool LEYTON ORIENT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leyton Orient win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leyton Orient win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Leyton Orient v Blackpool
2′Much as we predicted: Leyton Orient was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
9′Much as we predicted: Leyton Orient was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
22′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Josh Bowler · Blackpool
31′We published Leyton Orient at 44%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Leyton Orient 1–0 Blackpool
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Leyton Orient win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
33′William Forrester scores for Leyton Orient on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Zachary Ashworth · Blackpool
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Leyton Orient win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Leyton Orient 1–0 Blackpool
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leyton Orient · On: Idris El Mizouni · Off: Isaac Hayden
46′SECOND HALF Leyton Orient 1–0 Blackpool
49′We published Leyton Orient at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
49′9 shots for Blackpool, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
62′Blackpool have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leyton Orient · On: Dane Scarlett · Off: Aaron Connolly
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leyton Orient · On: Charlie Wellens · Off: Yusuf Akhamrich
65′We published Leyton Orient at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leyton Orient · On: Armando Dobra · Off: Jaze Kabia
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Leyton Orient win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Blackpool · On: Leighton Clarkson · Off: George Honeyman
74′We published Leyton Orient at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Blackpool · On: Dale Taylor · Off: Jerry Yates
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Blackpool · On: Dion Charles · Off: Tom Bloxham
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Finley Munroe · Blackpool
77′76′: Dane Scarlett on the scoresheet for Leyton Orient, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Leyton Orient 2–0 Blackpool · Dane Scarlett (penalty)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Leyton Orient win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
78′We published Leyton Orient at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Blackpool · On: Ilmari Niskanen · Off: Finley Munroe
83′We published Leyton Orient at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Leyton Orient at 44% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Leyton Orient 2–0 Blackpool
FTLeyton Orient 2–0 Blackpool · Leyton Orient win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leyton Orient are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leyton Orient 44%, draw 25%, Blackpool 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Leyton Orient v BlackpoolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leyton Orient win44%

Draw25%

Blackpool win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMatchroom Stadium

Line-ups

Leyton Orient

3-4-3

Blackpool

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leyton Orient

Blackpool

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leyton Orient

3-4-3

1 N. Baxter

5 J. Olowu

6 W. Forrester

12 A. Gilchrist

2 F. Stevens

20 A. Gilbert

14 I. Hayden

3 J. Morris

22 Y. Akhamrich

9 J. Kabia

10 A. Connolly

Coach · Richie Wellens

Substitutes

13 · N. Phillips

34 · P. Chinedu

8 · I. El Mizouni

25 · C. Wellens

18 · D. Scarlett

27 · T. Springett

17 · A. Dobra

Blackpool

4-1-3-2

1 B. Peacock-Farrell

28 J. Williams

4 O. Casey

3 Z. Ashworth

26 F. Munroe

8 A. Morgan

11 J. Bowler

17 K. Anderson

10 G. Honeyman

14 T. Bloxham

12 J. Yates

Coach · Ian Evatt

Substitutes

15 · H. Coulson

2 · A. Lyons

7 · L. Clarkson

6 · J. Brown

18 · D. Taylor

21 · I. Niskanen

19 · D. Charles

Our number · leyton orient winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Leyton Orient a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leyton Orient v Blackpool~~1.55 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~13 v 18

~~The market · Leyton Orient win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leyton Orient win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leyton Orient win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Blackpool win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Leyton Orient or draw	69%	69%	0
Leyton Orient clean sheet	29%	–	–
Blackpool clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 7.7 4.8 1 9.5 11.7 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.3 3 3.8 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leyton Orient down, Blackpool across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leyton Orient at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Blackpool away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Leyton Orient, 1.24 for Blackpool. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BLA 1–0 LEY · LEY 1–1 BLA · BLA 1–2 LEY · LEY 3–0 BLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

LEYTON ORIENT

WDLWLD5–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

BLACKPOOL

WLLDLL4–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4