Leicester v Wigan prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeicesterDrawWigan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Leicester 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leicester are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leicester 47%, draw 27%, Wigan 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Leicester v WiganBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Leicester win47%

Draw27%

Wigan win27%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKing Power Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leicester

Wigan

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Leicester	11	0	15
24	Wigan	11	−9	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

What Leicester City staff have been told about a takeover of the clubFootball League World · 22 Oct 10:20 · Leicester

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leicester winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market58%

Us47%

~~Market~~58%

We make Leicester a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leicester v Wigan~~1.43 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~12 v 24

~~The market · Leicester win~~58% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leicester win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leicester win	47%	58%	−11
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Wigan win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Leicester or draw	73%	81%	−8
Leicester clean sheet	37%	–	–
Wigan clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 9.0 8.9 4.5 1 12.6 12.3 6.2 2.1 2 8.9 8.8 4.4 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leicester down, Wigan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Leicester at home: 1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 5). Wigan away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Leicester, 1.01 for Wigan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

LEICESTER

WDLWWL4–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–2

WIGAN

DLLWLL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Huddersfield	12	+13	25
2	Stockport County	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Luton	11	+2	17
10	Stevenage	10	+5	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leicester	11	0	15
13	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	11	−9	7