Leicester v Stevenage prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeicesterDrawStevenage

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Leicester 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leicester are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leicester 41%, draw 28%, Stevenage 31%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Leicester v StevenageBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Leicester win41%

Draw28%

Stevenage win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueKing Power Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leicester

Stevenage

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Stevenage	11	+4	15
13	Leicester	11	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leicester winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Leicester a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leicester v Stevenage~~1.25 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 10 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~13 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leicester win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Stevenage win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Leicester or draw	69%	–	–
Leicester clean sheet	36%	–	–
Stevenage clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.3 10.5 5.5 1 12.6 12.9 6.7 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.2 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leicester down, Stevenage across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,923 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leicester at home: 1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 5). Stevenage away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Leicester, 1.04 for Stevenage. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STE 2–1 LEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 10 Sept

LEICESTER

WDLWWL4–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–2

STEVENAGE

WLWLWL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Huddersfield	12	+13	25
2	Stockport County	12	+12	23
3	Bradford	12	+5	22
4	Plymouth	13	+2	22
5	Reading	12	+12	21
6	Cambridge United	12	+3	20
7	Oxford United	10	+8	19
8	Sheffield Wednesday	11	+8	18
9	Mansfield Town	11	+4	18
10	Luton	11	+2	17
11	Burton Albion	13	−1	17
12	Stevenage	11	+4	15
13	Leicester	11	0	15
14	Wycombe	12	−4	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	+2	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	−11	13
17	Doncaster	11	−1	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	−6	12
19	Notts County	11	−3	11
20	Blackpool	11	−4	11
21	Peterborough	12	−10	10
22	Bromley	11	−16	9
23	Barnsley	11	−10	8
24	Wigan	11	−9	7