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Leicester v Peterborough

Leicester

1–3Full time

Peterborough

League One · SAT 10 OCT · King Power Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Leicester 1–3 Peterborough LEICESTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leicester win~~47%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leicester win at 47%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Leicester 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
2′KICK-OFF Leicester v Peterborough
10′12′ and it is 0–0: Peterborough have scored. 0–0 · 45–26–29
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Leicester 0–1 Peterborough · Owura Edwards (assist Harley Mills)
16′We said Leicester at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Peterborough win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Leicester win 21%)
24′We said Leicester at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–59
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
37′Peterborough ahead on 36′ through Harry Leonard. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Leicester 0–2 Peterborough · Harry Leonard
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 4% now
40′We said Leicester at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
44′Warren O'Hora scores for Peterborough on 44′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Leicester 0–3 Peterborough · Harry Leonard
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Leicester 0–3 Peterborough · Warren O'Hora
45′HALF-TIME Leicester 0–3 Peterborough
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: Wes Burns · Off: Liam Cullen
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: Ilari Kangasniemi · Off: Warren O'Hora
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: K. Doyle · Off: Olabade Aluko
45′SECOND HALF Leicester 0–3 Peterborough
48′12.0 shots for Leicester, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–3 · 1–3–97
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Peterborough · On: Matthew Garbett · Off: Ethan Williams
62′⚽ GOAL · 12' Leicester 0–3 Peterborough · Owura Edwards (assist Harley Mills)
62′⚽ GOAL · 36' Leicester 0–3 Peterborough · Harry Leonard (assist Bolu Shofowoke)
62′⚽ GOAL · 44' Leicester 0–3 Peterborough · Warren O'Hora
62′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: Wes Burns · Off: Liam Cullen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: Ilari Kangasniemi · Off: Warren O'Hora
62′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Leicester · On: K. Doyle · Off: Olabade Aluko
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Peterborough · On: Matthew Garbett · Off: Ethan Williams
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Leicester · On: Samuel Charles Braybrooke · Off: Bobby Reid
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Peterborough · On: B. Woods · Off: Harry Ashfield
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Peterborough · On: Vernon Masara · Off: Bolu Shofowoke
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Leicester 1–3 Peterborough · Emil Riis Jakobsen (assist Wes Burns)
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Peterborough · On: Brandon·Singh Khela · Off: Liam Kelly
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Peterborough · On: D. Ormerod · Off: Harry Leonard
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Leicester · On: Harry Howell · Off: Caleb Okoli
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Matthew Garbett · Peterborough
FTFULL TIME Leicester 1–3 Peterborough
FTLeicester 1–3 Peterborough · Leicester win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leicester win47%

Draw24%

Peterborough win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

I played for QPR and won the Premier League at Leicester City - you won’t believe where I play nowFootball League World · 7 hours ago · Leicester

‘The only problem’ – Leicester City fear revealed over potential Robbie Savage actionFootball League World · 1 day ago · Leicester, Peterborough

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · King Power Stadium

Referee · Simon Hooper

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Leicester

4-2-3-1

29 A. McCarthy

32 O. Aluko

5 C. Okoli

16 W. O'Hora

33 L. Thomas

6 J. Lundstram

25 L. Page

11 L. Cullen

14 B. De Cordova-Reid

37 W. Alves

17 E. Riis

Coach · Russell Martin

Substitutes

21 · F. Ravizzoli

15 · H. Souttar

24 · I. Kangasniemi

27 · K. Doyle

36 · S. Braybrooke

7 · W. Burns

20 · H. Howell

Peterborough

4-2-3-1

1 A. Bass

2 C. Johnston

18 L. Mendonca

12 J. Feeney

14 H. Mills

4 L. Kelly

45 H. Ashfield

19 B. Shofowoke

10 E. Williams

11 O. Edwards

9 H. Leonard

Coach · Robbie Savage

Substitutes

23 · C. Andeng Ndi

26 · D. Okagbue

8 · B. Khela

17 · V. Masara

28 · M. Garbett

16 · B. Woods

27 · D. Ormerod

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Leicester

4-2-3-1

29 A. McCarthy

32 O. Aluko

5 C. Okoli

16 W. O'Hora

33 L. Thomas

6 J. Lundstram

25 L. Page

11 L. Cullen

14 B. De Cordova-Reid

37 W. Alves

17 E. Riis

Coach · Russell Martin

Substitutes

21 · F. Ravizzoli

15 · H. Souttar

24 · I. Kangasniemi

27 · K. Doyle

36 · S. Braybrooke

7 · W. Burns

20 · H. Howell

Peterborough

4-2-3-1

1 A. Bass

2 C. Johnston

18 L. Mendonca

12 J. Feeney

14 H. Mills

4 L. Kelly

45 H. Ashfield

19 B. Shofowoke

10 E. Williams

11 O. Edwards

9 H. Leonard

Coach · Robbie Savage

Substitutes

23 · C. Andeng Ndi

26 · D. Okagbue

8 · B. Khela

17 · V. Masara

28 · M. Garbett

16 · B. Woods

27 · D. Ormerod

Our number · leicester winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market61%

Us47%

~~Market~~61%

We make Leicester a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leicester win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leicester win	47%	61%	−15
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Peterborough win	30%	19%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	57%	70%	−13
Both teams to score	59%	66%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	87%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	35%	51%	−16
Leicester or draw	70%	81%	−11
Leicester clean sheet	28%	–	–
Peterborough clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 6.6 4.3 1 8.6 10.9 7.0 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.1 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leicester down, Peterborough across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Leicester at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Peterborough away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Leicester, 1.30 for Peterborough. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League One

LEICESTER

LDWLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 1–1

PETERBOROUGH

LDLDLL0–4 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4