Leicester v Doncaster prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Leicester 2–1 Doncaster LEICESTER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leicester win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.426

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leicester win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Leicester v Doncaster
2′Little has changed for our model: Leicester 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
8′Little has changed for our model: Leicester 47% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Luke Thomas · Leicester
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Leicester 1–0 Doncaster
46′We said Leicester at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Leicester 1–0 Doncaster
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
46′SECOND HALF Leicester 1–0 Doncaster
47′Leicester ahead on 45′ through John Lundstram. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Alfie May · Doncaster
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Doncaster · On: Brandon Hanlan · Off: Isaac Hutchinson
60′We said Leicester at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' jay mcgrath · Doncaster
61′We said Leicester at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Leicester 2–0 Doncaster
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Leicester win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
63′K. Doyle scores for Leicester on 61′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Leon Ayinde · Doncaster
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Doncaster · On: Hakeeb Adelakun · Off: Leon Ayinde
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Doncaster · On: Bayley McCann · Off: T. Nixon
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Doncaster · On: Will Keane · Off: George Broadbent
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leicester · On: Conor Chaplin · Off: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Leicester · On: Liam Cullen · Off: K. Doyle
82′We said Leicester at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′We said Leicester at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Leicester 2–1 Doncaster
87′84′: Warren O'Hora puts it into the Leicester net, and it is 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Doncaster · On: Harry Clifton · Off: Sean Grehan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Leicester · On: Olabade Aluko · Off: William Thomas-Alves
FTFULL TIME Leicester 2–1 Doncaster
FTLeicester 2–1 Doncaster · Leicester win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leicester are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leicester 47%, draw 25%, Doncaster 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Leicester v DoncasterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leicester win47%

Draw25%

Doncaster win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueKing Power Stadium

Line-ups

Leicester

3-4-2-1

Doncaster

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leicester

Doncaster

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Star set for 2027 Cardiff City exit - Blackburn Rovers & Leicester City must keep tabsFootball League World · 17 Oct 08:45 · Blackburn, Leicester

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leicester

3-4-2-1

29 A. McCarthy

16 W. O'Hora

15 H. Souttar

5 C. Okoli

37 W. Alves

6 J. Lundstram

25 L. Page

33 L. Thomas

36 S. Braybrooke

27 K. Doyle

17 E. Riis

Coach · Russell Martin

Substitutes

21 · F. Ravizzoli

24 · I. Kangasniemi

32 · O. Aluko

14 · B. De Cordova-Reid

20 · H. Howell

11 · L. Cullen

8 · C. Chaplin

Doncaster

3-4-2-1

1 T. Simkin

27 S. Grehan

12 N. Byrne

6 J. McGrath

11 L. Ayinde

22 R. Gotts

8 G. Broadbent

16 T. Nixon

4 O. Bailey

21 I. Hutchinson

10 A. May

Coach · Grant McCann

Substitutes

42 · J. Clarke

15 · H. Clifton

20 · D. Robinson

25 · B. McCann

18 · W. Keane

47 · H. Adelakun

9 · B. Hanlan

Our number · leicester winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Leicester a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leicester v Doncaster~~1.54 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~17 v 16

~~The market · Leicester win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leicester win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leicester win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Doncaster win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	52%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	81%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	28%	41%	−13
Leicester or draw	72%	75%	−3
Leicester clean sheet	33%	–	–
Doncaster clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.3 8.0 4.5 1 10.8 11.8 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.0 3 4.3 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leicester down, Doncaster across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Leicester at home: 1.00 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Doncaster away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Leicester, 1.12 for Doncaster. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

LEICESTER

DWLWDL0–0 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–3

DONCASTER

DDLLWW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4