Huddersfield v Wigan prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Huddersfield 2–1 Wigan HUDDERSFIELD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Huddersfield win~~52%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.340

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.119

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Huddersfield win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Huddersfield 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Huddersfield v Wigan
8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Sonny Tufail Perkins · Wigan
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Connor Barrett · Wigan
35′We said Huddersfield at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Huddersfield 1–0 Wigan
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Huddersfield win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
36′Ilias Bronkhorst scores for Huddersfield on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Ashley Fletcher · Huddersfield
41′We said Huddersfield at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jon Mellish · Wigan
45′HALF-TIME Huddersfield 1–0 Wigan
45′SECOND HALF Huddersfield 1–0 Wigan
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wigan · On: Charlie Gray · Off: Sonny Tufail Perkins
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Ibane Bowat · Huddersfield
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Huddersfield win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Wigan · On: Christian Saydee · Off: Dara James Morgan Costelloe
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Wigan · On: K'Marni Miller · Off: Jon Mellish
66′We said Huddersfield at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Huddersfield · On: Marcus Harness · Off: Ashley Fletcher
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Cameron Humphreys · Huddersfield
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Wigan · On: Jeremiah Chilokoa-Mullen · Off: Morgan Fox
77′We said Huddersfield at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Charlie Gray · Wigan
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Huddersfield win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
81′80′: Derensili Sanches Fernandes on the scoresheet for Huddersfield. 1–0 · 92–7–0
81′We said Huddersfield at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Huddersfield 2–0 Wigan · Derensili Sanches Fernandes
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wigan · On: Scott Hogan · Off: Bradley Burrowes
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Huddersfield · On: Samson Tovide · Off: Derensili Sanches Fernandes
90′2–1 at the end. Our 52% on Huddersfield comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
93′We said Huddersfield at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
93′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Huddersfield · On: Lynden Gooch · Off: Joe Taylor
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Huddersfield 2–1 Wigan
94′Wigan pull one back on 90′ through Christian Saydee. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Huddersfield 2–1 Wigan
FTHuddersfield 2–1 Wigan · Huddersfield win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huddersfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huddersfield 52%, draw 25%, Wigan 22%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Huddersfield v WiganBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Huddersfield win52%

Draw25%

Wigan win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueJohn Smith's Stadium

Line-ups

Huddersfield

3-4-2-1

Wigan

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huddersfield

Wigan

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
24	Wigan	10	−8	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Middlesbrough can seal promotion with incredible Huddersfield transfer swap in JanuaryFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:00 · Huddersfield

Forget Sanches Fernandes: Huddersfield Town have pulled off another transfer masterstrokeFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:45 · Huddersfield

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Huddersfield

3-4-2-1

1 M. Young

5 J. Low

15 I. Bowat

23 S. Roughan

22 I. Bronkhorst

8 A. Collins

20 C. Humphreys

19 B. Mumba

30 D. Sanches Fernandes

9 J. Taylor

11 A. Fletcher

Coach · Martin Drury

Substitutes

34 · S. Tovide

31 · J. Alnwick

24 · C. Ashia

12 · R. Balker

14 · E. Brierley

7 · L. Gooch

10 · M. Harness

Wigan

4-2-3-1

41 J. Whitworth

2 C. Barrett

5 F. Burns

22 J. Mellish

16 Archie Harris

23 J. Carragher

6 J. Weir

9 S. Perkins

10 R. Walsh

11 D. Costelloe

27 B. Burrows

Coach · G. Caldwell

Substitutes

4 · J. Chilokoa-Mullen

3 · M. Fox

17 · A. Higgins

25 · S. Hogan

38 · C. Saydee

21 · K'Marni Miller

18 · Charlie Gray

Our number · huddersfield winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

52% The market72%

Us52%

~~Market~~72%

We make Huddersfield a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huddersfield v Wigan~~1.58 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 7~~2 v 24

~~The market · Huddersfield win~~72% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Huddersfield win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huddersfield win	52%	72%	−20
Draw	25%	18%	+7
Wigan win	22%	10%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	46%	61%	−15
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	81%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	25%	39%	−14
Huddersfield or draw	78%	90%	−12
Huddersfield clean sheet	40%	–	–
Wigan clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.3 7.7 3.6 1 12.9 11.8 5.5 2 10.1 9.2 4.3 3 5.3 4.9 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huddersfield down, Wigan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huddersfield at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wigan away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Huddersfield, 0.93 for Wigan. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 12:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WIG 1–0 HUD · HUD 1–1 WIG · WIG 2–1 HUD · HUD 1–0 WIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

HUDDERSFIELD

DLWDWW0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–1

WIGAN

LDLLWL0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockport County	11	+12	22
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
10	Leicester	10	+1	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
13	Luton	10	+1	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	10	−8	7