Doncaster v Stockport County prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Doncaster 0–2 Stockport County STOCKPORT COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockport County win~~47%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.304

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockport County win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stockport County was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
1′KICK-OFF Doncaster v Stockport County
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Owen Bailey · Doncaster
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Grant McCann · Doncaster
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stockport County win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Doncaster 0–0 Stockport County
45′SECOND HALF Doncaster 0–0 Stockport County
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Stockport County win 38%)
50′We said Stockport County at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 23–42–35
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jack Diamond · Stockport County
52′We said Stockport County at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–43–34
53′53′: Mamadou Jobe on the scoresheet for Stockport County. 0–0 · 22–44–34
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Doncaster 0–1 Stockport County · Mamadou Jobe
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Stockport County win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Stockport County win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 44%)
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–39–37
55′We published Stockport County at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 4–17–78
59′Kyle Wootton scores for Stockport County on 59′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
59′We published Stockport County at 47%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–96
59′PENALTY MISSED · 58' Oliver Norwood · Stockport County
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Doncaster 0–2 Stockport County · Kyle Wootton
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Stockport County win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stockport County · On: Josh Cogley · Off: Ben Osborn
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stockport County · On: Lewis Fiorini · Off: Lewis Bate
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Stockport County win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Doncaster · On: Will Keane · Off: Brandon Hanlan
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Doncaster · On: Hakeeb Adelakun · Off: jay mcgrath
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Doncaster · On: Isaac Hutchinson · Off: Alfie May
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stockport County · On: Mikael Mandron · Off: Kyle Wootton
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stockport County · On: Ethan Ennis · Off: Ryan Glover
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Doncaster · On: Darren Robinson · Off: George Broadbent
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Doncaster · On: Harry Clifton · Off: Leon Ayinde
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Stockport County · On: Adama Sidibeh · Off: Jack Diamond
82′We published Stockport County at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Darren Robinson · Doncaster
FTFULL TIME Doncaster 0–2 Stockport County
FTDoncaster 0–2 Stockport County · Stockport County win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stockport County are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doncaster 28%, draw 25%, Stockport County 47%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Doncaster v Stockport CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Doncaster win28%

Draw25%

Stockport County win47%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKeepmoat Stadium

Line-ups

Doncaster

3-4-2-1

Stockport County

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doncaster

Stockport County

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Doncaster

3-4-2-1

1 Tommy Simkin

27 S. Grehan

12 N. Byrne

6 J. McGrath

11 L. Ayinde

22 R. Gotts

8 G. Broadbent

25 B. McCann

4 O. Bailey

10 A. May

9 B. Hanlan

Coach · G. McCann

Substitutes

20 · D. Robinson

32 · Jake Oram

18 · W. Keane

21 · I. Hutchinson

15 · H. Clifton

47 · H. Adelakun

39 · P. Lincoln

Stockport County

3-4-3

1 Oliver Whatmuff

25 M. Jobe

6 E. O'Connell

5 E. Pye

15 R. Glover

4 L. Bate

10 O. Norwood

23 B. Osborn

7 J. Diamond

19 K. Wootton

16 H. Wood

Coach · J. McNulty

Substitutes

20 · J. Adigun

9 · B. Andrésson

2 · J. Dacres-Cogley

30 · Ethan Ennis

18 · L. Fiorini

22 · M. Mandron

29 · Adama Sidibeh

Our number · stockport county winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

47% The market55%

Us47%

~~Market~~55%

We make Stockport County a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Doncaster v Stockport County~~1.12 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~17 v 2

~~The market · Stockport County win~~55% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stockport County win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Doncaster win	28%	22%	+6
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Stockport County win	47%	55%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	38%	−10
Doncaster or draw	53%	45%	+8
Doncaster clean sheet	21%	–	–
Stockport County clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 10.8 8.3 4.4 1 7.8 11.8 9.1 4.8 2 4.4 6.6 5.1 2.6 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Doncaster down, Stockport County across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Doncaster at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Stockport County away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Doncaster, 1.56 for Stockport County. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STO 1–1 DON · DON 0–1 STO · STO 4–2 DON · DON 0–2 STO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept

DONCASTER

DLLWWL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

STOCKPORT COUNTY

WLDWWW4–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7