Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Doncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sheffield Wednesday win~~52%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.905

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheffield Wednesday win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sheffield Wednesday was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 24–24–52
1′KICK-OFF Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday
7′Doncaster find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 49–24–27
7′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 49–24–27
7′Doncaster ahead on 7′ through Owen Bailey. 1–0. 1–0 · 49–24–27
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Doncaster 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Sheffield Wednesday win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Doncaster win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Sheffield Wednesday win 51%)
15′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 51–25–24
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Ali Al-Hamadi · Sheffield Wednesday
19′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 77–14–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Doncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Sheffield Wednesday win: 52% at kick-off, 9% now
22′Owen Bailey scores for Doncaster on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 78–14–8
41′We said Sheffield Wednesday at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 84–11–4
45′HALF-TIME Doncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Mason Burstow · Off: Jaden Heskey
46′SECOND HALF Doncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Sheffield Wednesday win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
54′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–2
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Doncaster · On: Alfie May · Off: Will Keane
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Doncaster · On: Brandon Hanlan · Off: Leon Ayinde Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Doncaster · On: George Broadbent · Off: Jamie Sterry
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Doncaster · On: Tommi Dylan O'Reilly · Off: Hakeeb Adelakun
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Robbie Gotts · Doncaster
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sheffield Wednesday · On: William Grainger · Off: Ali Al-Hamadi
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Doncaster · On: Bayley McCann · Off: Leon Ayinde
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Billy Mitchell · Sheffield Wednesday
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sheffield Wednesday · On: Sean Fusire · Off: Liam Palmer
FTFULL TIME Doncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday
FTDoncaster 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday · Sheffield Wednesday win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheffield Wednesday are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doncaster 24%, draw 24%, Sheffield Wednesday 52%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Doncaster v Sheffield WednesdayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Doncaster win24%

Draw24%

Sheffield Wednesday win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueKeepmoat Stadium

Line-ups

Doncaster

4-2-3-1

Sheffield Wednesday

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doncaster

Sheffield Wednesday

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Henrik Pedersen has done one Sheffield Wednesday thing that Sheffield United couldn’tFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:20 · Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield Utd

Can you name Sheffield Wednesday's 2023 play-off final XI in 90 seconds?Football League World · 23 Oct 15:42 · Sheffield Wednesday

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Doncaster

4-2-3-1

1 Tommy Simkin

2 J. Sterry

27 S. Grehan

12 N. Byrne

23 J. Senior

22 R. Gotts

4 O. Bailey

11 L. Ayinde

21 I. Hutchinson

47 H. Adelakun

18 W. Keane

Coach · G. McCann

Substitutes

8 · G. Broadbent

9 · B. Hanlan

10 · A. May

25 · B. McCann

6 · J. McGrath

7 · T. O'Reilly

41 · Jacob Samuel Bryant

Sheffield Wednesday

4-4-1-1

13 A. Maynard-Brewer

7 Y. Valery

2 L. Palmer

6 L. Cooper

3 M. Lowe

20 K. Morrison

16 B. Mitchell

10 B. Bannan

18 Jaden Heskey

50 D. Keillor-Dunn

12 Ali Al Hamadi

Coach · H. Pedersen

Substitutes

48 · Mason Paul James Burstow

14 · S. Fusire

19 · W. Grainger

33 · R. James

26 · S. Swinkels

27 · C. Trueman

30 · Ernie Weaver

Our number · sheffield wednesday winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

52% The market39%

Us52%

~~Market~~39%

We make Sheffield Wednesday a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday~~1.03 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~19 v 7

~~The market · Sheffield Wednesday win~~39% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheffield Wednesday win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Doncaster win	24%	35%	−11
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Sheffield Wednesday win	52%	39%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Doncaster or draw	48%	61%	−13
Doncaster clean sheet	20%	–	–
Sheffield Wednesday clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.0 11.4 9.3 5.3 2.3 1 7.2 11.3 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 3.7 5.9 4.7 2.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Doncaster down, Sheffield Wednesday across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Doncaster at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Doncaster, 1.66 for Sheffield Wednesday. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DON 1–3 SHE · SHE 2–0 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

DONCASTER

LLWWLL2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

WDDDWL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockport County	11	+12	22
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
10	Leicester	10	+1	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
13	Luton	10	+1	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	10	−8	7