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Doncaster v Burton Albion

Doncaster

1–0Full time

Burton Albion

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Keepmoat Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion DONCASTER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Doncaster win~~41%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.520

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.292

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Doncaster win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Doncaster 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
2′KICK-OFF Doncaster v Burton Albion
13′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Doncaster · On: T. Nixon · Off: Jordan Thomas
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Matthew Dennis · Burton Albion
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Doncaster win 34%)
44′8.0 shots for Doncaster, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–41–27
46′Doncaster ahead on 45′ through Leon Ayinde. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Doncaster win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Doncaster win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion · Leon Ayinde (assist Alfie May)
46′SECOND HALF Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion · Leon Ayinde (assist Alfie May)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Doncaster · On: T. Nixon · Off: Jordan Thomas
59′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Matthew Dennis · Burton Albion
59′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Owen Bailey · Doncaster
59′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Burton Albion · On: Toby Sibbick · Off: Will Collar
59′⚽ GOAL · 47' Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion · Leon Ayinde (assist Alfie May)
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Robbie Gotts · Doncaster
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Burton Albion · On: Gbemi Arubi · Off: Matthew Dennis
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Burton Albion · On: Kain Adom · Off: Charlie Webster
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Doncaster · On: Isaac Hutchinson · Off: Brandon Hanlan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Doncaster · On: Hakeeb Adelakun · Off: Leon Ayinde
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Burton Albion · On: H. Araujo · Off: F. Delap Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' H. Araujo · Burton Albion
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Hakeeb Adelakun · Doncaster
FTFULL TIME Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion
FTDoncaster 1–0 Burton Albion · Doncaster win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Doncaster win41%

Draw27%

Burton Albion win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Keepmoat Stadium

Referee · Blair Harrison

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Doncaster

3-4-1-2

1 T. Simkin

27 S. Grehan

12 N. Byrne

6 J. McGrath

11 L. Ayinde

22 R. Gotts

8 G. Broadbent

19 J. Thomas

4 O. Bailey

10 A. May

9 B. Hanlan

Coach · Grant McCann

Substitutes

42 · J. Clarke

16 · T. Nixon

21 · I. Hutchinson

15 · H. Clifton

20 · D. Robinson

47 · H. Adelakun

50 · D. Hartley

Burton Albion

3-4-2-1

34 C. Addai

26 F. Delap

12 G. Evans

16 C. Tilt

17 R. Borges Rodrigues

14 W. Collar

4 K. Chauke

3 J. Armer

18 C. Vickers

8 C. Webster

19 M. Dennis

Coach · Gary Bowyer

Substitutes

32 · J. Kean

6 · T. Sibbick

20 · J. Sraha

24 · H. Araujo

29 · K. Adom

9 · G. Arubi

41 · S. Krubally

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Doncaster

3-4-1-2

1 T. Simkin

27 S. Grehan

12 N. Byrne

6 J. McGrath

11 L. Ayinde

22 R. Gotts

8 G. Broadbent

19 J. Thomas

4 O. Bailey

10 A. May

9 B. Hanlan

Coach · Grant McCann

Substitutes

42 · J. Clarke

16 · T. Nixon

21 · I. Hutchinson

15 · H. Clifton

20 · D. Robinson

47 · H. Adelakun

50 · D. Hartley

Burton Albion

3-4-2-1

34 C. Addai

26 F. Delap

12 G. Evans

16 C. Tilt

17 R. Borges Rodrigues

14 W. Collar

4 K. Chauke

3 J. Armer

18 C. Vickers

8 C. Webster

19 M. Dennis

Coach · Gary Bowyer

Substitutes

32 · J. Kean

6 · T. Sibbick

20 · J. Sraha

24 · H. Araujo

29 · K. Adom

9 · G. Arubi

41 · S. Krubally

Our number · doncaster winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market56%

Us41%

~~Market~~56%

We make Doncaster a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Doncaster win	41%	56%	−15
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Burton Albion win	32%	20%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Doncaster or draw	68%	80%	−12
Doncaster clean sheet	32%	–	–
Burton Albion clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 9.6 5.5 2.1 1 11.3 12.6 7.2 2.8 2 7.5 8.4 4.8 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Doncaster down, Burton Albion across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Doncaster at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Burton Albion away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Doncaster, 1.14 for Burton Albion. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BUR 1–2 DON · DON 1–1 BUR · DON 2–0 BUR · BUR 2–0 DON

Form · last six in League One

DONCASTER

DDDLLW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

BURTON ALBION

WDLDWL4–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4