Cambridge United v Wycombe prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Cambridge United 2–2 Wycombe WYCOMBE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wycombe win~~41%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.748

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wycombe win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wycombe 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
1′KICK-OFF Cambridge United v Wycombe
44′We said Wycombe at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 7–20–72
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–72
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Cambridge United 0–1 Wycombe
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Wycombe win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
45′44′: Jayden Wareham on the scoresheet for Wycombe, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
45′HALF-TIME Cambridge United 0–1 Wycombe
45′SECOND HALF Cambridge United 0–1 Wycombe
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Jayden Wareham · Wycombe
53′We said Wycombe at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cambridge United · On: Louis Appere · Off: Sam Curtis
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cambridge United · On: Shayne Lavery · Off: Gassan Ahadme
62′We said Wycombe at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
62′Wycombe ahead on 61′ through Jayden Wareham. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Cambridge United 0–2 Wycombe
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Wycombe win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Wycombe · On: Josh Scowen · Off: Aaron Morley
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Daniel Harvie · Wycombe
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cambridge United · On: Owen Moxon · Off: George Hoddle
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cambridge United · On: Raees Bangura-Williams · Off: Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wycombe · On: Ewan Henderson · Off: Caolan Boyd-Munce
78′We said Wycombe at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Cambridge United 1–2 Wycombe
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Wycombe win: 41% at kick-off, 87% now
79′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–11–88
79′Shayne Lavery scores for Cambridge United on 78′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
81′We said Wycombe at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Wycombe win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Raees Bangura-Williams · Cambridge United
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wycombe · On: Cauley Woodrow · Off: Jayden Wareham
88′Cambridge United have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
93′We said Wycombe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–96–2
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Cambridge United 2–2 Wycombe
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Wycombe win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Wycombe win 98%)
94′90′: Connor Taylor puts it into the Wycombe net, and it is 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–2
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 1–97–2
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Ewan Henderson · Wycombe
FTFULL TIME Cambridge United 2–2 Wycombe
FTCambridge United 2–2 Wycombe · Wycombe win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wycombe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cambridge United 33%, draw 26%, Wycombe 41%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Cambridge United v WycombeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Cambridge United win33%

Draw26%

Wycombe win41%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAbbey Stadium

Line-ups

Cambridge United

4-2-3-1

Wycombe

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cambridge United

Wycombe

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cambridge United

4-2-3-1

1 J. Eastwood

29 S. Curtis

15 Cathal Séan Heffernan Andrews

6 K. Watts

22 Z. Bradshaw

38 G. Hoddle

17 P. Mpanzu

10 B. Knight

2 L. Bennett

11 S. Kaikai

14 G. Yahyai

Coach · N. Harris

Substitutes

8 · O. Moxon

19 · S. Lavery

7 · Isaac Heath

13 · G. Breeze

5 · P. Bauer

44 · Raees Bangura-Williams

9 · L. Appéré

Wycombe

4-4-1-1

23 C. Hazard

2 J. Grimmer

26 C. Taylor

45 A. Hagelskjær

27 S. Cook

44 F. Onyedinma

8 C. Boyd-Munce

5 A. Morley

3 D. Harvie

10 L. Leahy

15 J. Wareham

Coach · T. Hounsell

Substitutes

17 · D. Casey

20 · E. Henderson

21 · Jamie Mullins

4 · J. Scowen

11 · Silko Amari Otieno Thomas

33 · J. Wildsmith

12 · C. Woodrow

Our number · wycombe winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

41% The market33%

Us41%

~~Market~~33%

We make Wycombe a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cambridge United v Wycombe~~1.24 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 13~~5 v 11

~~The market · Wycombe win~~33% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wycombe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cambridge United win	33%	37%	−4
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Wycombe win	41%	33%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	69%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	25%	+3
Cambridge United or draw	59%	67%	−8
Cambridge United clean sheet	25%	–	–
Wycombe clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 10.1 7.1 3.4 1 8.8 12.1 8.6 4.1 2 5.4 7.5 5.3 2.5 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cambridge United down, Wycombe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cambridge United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wycombe away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Cambridge United, 1.42 for Wycombe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CAM 1–1 WYC · WYC 2–1 CAM · CAM 1–1 WYC · WYC 0–0 CAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

CAMBRIDGE UNITED

DWDDWW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

WYCOMBE

DWWDLW3–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7