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Cambridge United v Blackpool

Cambridge United

1–0Full time

Blackpool

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Abbey Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Cambridge United 1–0 Blackpool BLACKPOOL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Blackpool win~~39%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.637

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.427

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Blackpool win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Blackpool was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Cambridge United v Blackpool
5′A red card for Blackpool on 6′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 35–27–38
7′🟥 RED CARD · 6' George Honeyman · Blackpool
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Oliver Casey · Blackpool
45′HALF-TIME Cambridge United 0–0 Blackpool
46′SECOND HALF Cambridge United 0–0 Blackpool
46′🟥 RED CARD · 6' George Honeyman · Blackpool
46′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Oliver Casey · Blackpool
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Owen Moxon · Off: Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Owen Moxon · Off: Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
51′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Blackpool · On: Hayden Coulson · Off: Tom Bloxham
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cambridge United · On: Shayne Lavery · Off: Isaac Heath
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Blackpool · On: Ilmari Niskanen · Off: Josh Bowler
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Blackpool · On: Dion Charles · Off: Jerry Yates
74′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Blackpool · On: Jordan Brown · Off: Albie Morgan
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cambridge United 1–0 Blackpool
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cambridge United 1–0 Blackpool · Gassan Ahadme (assist Ben Knight)
84′🟥 RED CARD · 6' George Honeyman · Blackpool
84′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Oliver Casey · Blackpool
84′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Owen Moxon · Off: Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
84′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Blackpool · On: Hayden Coulson · Off: Tom Bloxham
84′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cambridge United · On: Shayne Lavery · Off: Isaac Heath
84′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Blackpool · On: Ilmari Niskanen · Off: Josh Bowler
84′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Blackpool · On: Dion Charles · Off: Jerry Yates
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Blackpool · On: Jordan Brown · Off: Albie Morgan
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cambridge United 1–0 Blackpool · Gassan Ahadme (assist Ben Knight)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cambridge United · On: Raees Bangura-Williams · Off: Ben Knight
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Sullay Kaikai · Cambridge United
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Finley Munroe · Blackpool
FTFULL TIME Cambridge United 1–0 Blackpool
FTCambridge United 1–0 Blackpool · Blackpool win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cambridge United win35%

Draw26%

Blackpool win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Abbey Stadium

Referee · Lewis Sandoe

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cambridge United

4-2-3-1

1 J. Eastwood

2 L. Bennett

15 C. Heffernan

6 K. Watts

22 Z. Bradshaw

4 D. Ball

17 P. Mpanzu

10 B. Knight

11 S. Kaikai

7 I. Heath

14 G. Ahadme

Coach · Neil Harris

Substitutes

13 · Gabe Breeze

29 · S. Curtis

5 · P. Bauer

19 · S. Lavery

8 · O. Moxon

9 · L. Appere

44 · R. Bangura-Williams

Blackpool

4-1-3-2

1 B. Peacock-Farrell

28 J. Williams

4 O. Casey

3 Z. Ashworth

26 F. Munroe

10 G. Honeyman

11 J. Bowler

17 K. Anderson

8 A. Morgan

14 T. Bloxham

12 J. Yates

Coach · Ian Evatt

Substitutes

15 · H. Coulson

2 · A. Lyons

7 · L. Clarkson

6 · J. Brown

18 · D. Taylor

21 · I. Niskanen

19 · D. Charles

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cambridge United

4-2-3-1

1 J. Eastwood

2 L. Bennett

15 C. Heffernan

6 K. Watts

22 Z. Bradshaw

4 D. Ball

17 P. Mpanzu

10 B. Knight

11 S. Kaikai

7 I. Heath

14 G. Ahadme

Coach · Neil Harris

Substitutes

13 · Gabe Breeze

29 · S. Curtis

5 · P. Bauer

19 · S. Lavery

8 · O. Moxon

9 · L. Appere

44 · R. Bangura-Williams

Blackpool

4-1-3-2

1 B. Peacock-Farrell

28 J. Williams

4 O. Casey

3 Z. Ashworth

26 F. Munroe

10 G. Honeyman

11 J. Bowler

17 K. Anderson

8 A. Morgan

14 T. Bloxham

12 J. Yates

Coach · Ian Evatt

Substitutes

15 · H. Coulson

2 · A. Lyons

7 · L. Clarkson

6 · J. Brown

18 · D. Taylor

21 · I. Niskanen

19 · D. Charles

Our number · blackpool winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market28%

Us39%

~~Market~~28%

We make Blackpool a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · blackpool win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cambridge United win	35%	47%	−11
Draw	26%	26%	0
Blackpool win	39%	28%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Cambridge United or draw	61%	72%	−11
Cambridge United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Blackpool clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 9.6 6.5 3.0 1 9.0 12.1 8.3 3.8 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cambridge United down, Blackpool across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cambridge United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Blackpool away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Cambridge United, 1.38 for Blackpool. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BLA 2–1 CAM · CAM 4–4 BLA · BLA 1–0 CAM · CAM 2–1 BLA

Form · last six in League One

CAMBRIDGE UNITED

LWDWDD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

BLACKPOOL

WWLLDL2–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4