Burton Albion v Leyton Orient

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Leyton Orient win at 38%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Leyton Orient was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
3. 2′KICK-OFF Burton Albion v Leyton Orient
4. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' M. O’Mahony · Burton Albion
5. 34′Alexander George Henry Gilbert scores for Leyton Orient on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
6. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Burton Albion 0–1 Leyton Orient · Alexander George Henry Gilbert
7. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Leyton Orient win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
8. 35′We published Leyton Orient at 38%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 10–22–69
9. 35′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–69
10. 39′We published Leyton Orient at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
11. 45′HALF-TIME Burton Albion 0–1 Leyton Orient
12. 46′SECOND HALF Burton Albion 0–1 Leyton Orient
13. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Burton Albion 1–1 Leyton Orient
14. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Leyton Orient win: 38% at kick-off, 27% now
15. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Leyton Orient win 74%)
16. 57′We said Leyton Orient at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 25–49–26
17. 57′56′: Kgagelo Chauke on the scoresheet for Burton Albion, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–49–26
18. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Burton Albion · On: Gbemi Arubi · Off: M. O’Mahony
19. 61′We said Leyton Orient at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
20. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leyton Orient · On: Phillip Chinedu · Off: James Morris
21. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leyton Orient · On: Aaron Connolly · Off: Dane Scarlett
22. 70′We said Leyton Orient at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
23. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Leyton Orient win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
24. 74′15 shots for Burton Albion, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 16–67–17
25. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Leyton Orient · On: Armando Dobra · Off: Isaac Hayden
26. 77′We said Leyton Orient at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
27. 78′Burton Albion have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 13–73–13
28. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Burton Albion · On: Emeka Adeile · Off: H. Araujo
29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Leyton Orient · On: Oliver O'Neill · Off: Jaze Kabia
30. 83′We said Leyton Orient at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
31. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Leyton Orient win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
32. 87′Burton Albion ahead on 86′ through Will Collar. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
33. 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Burton Albion 2–1 Leyton Orient · Will Collar
34. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Burton Albion win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 89%)
35. 88′We said Leyton Orient at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
36. 88′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 95–5–0
37. FTFULL TIME Burton Albion 2–1 Leyton Orient
38. FTBurton Albion 2–1 Leyton Orient · Leyton Orient win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.