Burton Albion v Bradford prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Burton Albion 0–0 Bradford BRADFORD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bradford win~~39%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bradford win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bradford was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 32–29–39
1′KICK-OFF Burton Albion v Bradford
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Bradford win 36%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Raphael Borges Rodrigues · Burton Albion
45′HALF-TIME Burton Albion 0–0 Bradford
45′SECOND HALF Burton Albion 0–0 Bradford
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Bradford win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Curtis Tilt · Burton Albion
53′We said Bradford at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 23–50–27
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford
60′We said Bradford at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Burton Albion · On: Matthew Dennis · Off: Gbemi Arubi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bradford · On: Stephen Humphrys · Off: Bobby Pointon
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bradford · On: Nick Powell · Off: Jake Beesley
69′We said Bradford at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Bradford win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Burton Albion · On: Will Collar · Off: Caylon Vickers
76′We said Bradford at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–73–14
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bradford · On: Kayden Jackson · Off: Stephen Humphrys
82′We said Bradford at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Toby Sibbick · Burton Albion
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Bradford win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bradford · On: Adam Phillips · Off: Antoni Sarcevic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Burton Albion · On: Jason Sraha · Off: George Evans
89′We said Bradford at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sulyman Krubally · Burton Albion
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Ibou Touray · Bradford
FTFULL TIME Burton Albion 0–0 Bradford
FTBurton Albion 0–0 Bradford · Bradford win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bradford are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Burton Albion 32%, draw 29%, Bradford 39%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Burton Albion v BradfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Burton Albion win32%

Draw29%

Bradford win39%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePirelli Stadium

Line-ups

Burton Albion

3-4-2-1

Bradford

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Burton Albion

Bradford

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

FA Cup first round ties in full as Sheffield Wednesday and Bradford City discover opponentsMirror Football · 19 Oct 18:52 · Sheffield Wednesday, Bradford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Burton Albion

3-4-2-1

34 C. Addai

6 T. Sibbick

12 G. Evans

16 C. Tilt

17 R. Borges Rodrigues

41 Sulyman Krubally

4 K. Chauke

24 Harvey Araujo

18 Caylon Vickers

8 C. Webster

9 G. Arubi

Coach · G. Bowyer

Substitutes

14 · W. Collar

19 · M. Dennis

32 · J. Kean

10 · Mark O’Mahony

20 · J. Sraha

23 · Emeka Adeile

29 · Kain Adom

Bradford

3-4-2-1

21 J. McCracken

28 M. Pennington

15 A. Baldwin

16 George Christopher John Pratt

27 C. O'Keeffe

10 A. Sarcevic

6 C. Connolly

3 I. Touray

24 W. Swan

23 B. Pointon

9 J. Beesley

Coach · M. Duff

Substitutes

25 · N. Powell

8 · A. Phillips

32 · G. Lapslie

19 · K. Jackson

11 · S. Humphrys

5 · M. Gillesphey

1 · C. Dawson

Our number · bradford winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market52%

Us39%

~~Market~~52%

We make Bradford a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Burton Albion v Bradford~~1.01 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~10 v 1

~~The market · Bradford win~~52% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bradford win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burton Albion win	32%	21%	+11
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Bradford win	39%	52%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	63%	72%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Burton Albion or draw	61%	48%	+13
Burton Albion clean sheet	32%	–	–
Bradford clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.6 13.3 7.6 3.0 1 11.7 13.1 7.6 3.0 2 5.9 6.7 3.8 3 2.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burton Albion down, Bradford across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burton Albion at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bradford away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Burton Albion, 1.15 for Bradford. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BUR 2–1 BRA · BRA 1–2 BUR · BUR 4–0 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

BURTON ALBION

LDWLLD0–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

BRADFORD

WWWDDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7