Bromley v Peterborough prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Bromley 1–1 Peterborough PETERBOROUGH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Peterborough win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.887

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Peterborough win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Peterborough 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–23–40
1′KICK-OFF Bromley v Peterborough
11′Bromley find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–21–19
11′We said Peterborough at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–21–19
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bromley 1–0 Peterborough
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Peterborough win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Bromley win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Peterborough win 39%)
12′Bromley ahead on 11′ through Michael Cheek. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–21–19
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 63–22–15
32′We said Peterborough at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Peterborough win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Bromley 1–0 Peterborough
45′SECOND HALF Bromley 1–0 Peterborough
50′10 shots for Peterborough, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
52′We said Peterborough at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
65′12 shots for Peterborough, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 74–21–5
68′We said Peterborough at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bromley · On: Nicke Kabamba · Off: Victor Adeboyejo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Peterborough · On: Vernon Masara · Off: Carl Johnston
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Peterborough · On: Brandon·Singh Khela · Off: Liam Kelly
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bromley · On: corey whitely · Off: Jodi Jones
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Peterborough win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bromley · On: Mikel Miller · Off: Michael Cheek
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bromley · On: John Joshua Mckiernan · Off: William Hondermarck
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Peterborough · On: D. Ormerod · Off: Bolu Shofowoke
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kamari Antonio Grant · Bromley
88′16 shots for Peterborough, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–0
93′Vernon Masara scores for Peterborough on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–95–3
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Bromley 1–1 Peterborough
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Bromley win 97%)
FTFULL TIME Bromley 1–1 Peterborough
FTBromley 1–1 Peterborough · Peterborough win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Peterborough are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bromley 36%, draw 23%, Peterborough 41%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Bromley v PeterboroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bromley win36%

Draw23%

Peterborough win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueHayes Lane

Line-ups

Bromley

3-4-1-2

Peterborough

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bromley

Peterborough

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
23	Bromley	10	−16	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Third-longest serving manager in top 92 clubs Woodman leaves BromleyBBC Sport · 22 Oct 11:28 · Bromley

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bromley

3-4-1-2

1 G. Smith

12 Marcus Lemar Ifill

45 A. Jackson

21 Kamari Antonio Grant

16 W. Hondermarck

6 G. Saville

22 K. Conteh

11 M. Pinnock

10 J. Jones

20 V. Adeboyejo

9 M. Cheek

Coach · Byron Webster

Substitutes

14 · N. Kabamba

31 · O. Mason

28 · J. McKiernan

19 · M. Miller

3 · R. Taylor

8 · B. Thompson

18 · C. Whitely

Peterborough

4-2-3-1

1 A. Bass

2 C. Johnston

18 Lucca Mendonça

6 T. O'Connor

14 Harley Mills

4 L. Kelly

45 Harry Ashfield

19 Bolu Shofowoke

10 Ethan Williams

11 O. Edwards

9 H. Leonard

Coach · Robert William Savage

Substitutes

33 · James Dornelly

24 · Declan Firth

8 · B. Khela

26 · D. Okagbue

27 · D. Ormerod

17 · Vernon Masara

23 · C. Andeng Ndi

Our number · peterborough winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Peterborough a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bromley v Peterborough~~1.53 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~23 v 21

~~The market · Peterborough win~~48% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Peterborough win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bromley win	36%	28%	+8
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Peterborough win	41%	48%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	64%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Bromley or draw	59%	52%	+7
Bromley clean sheet	20%	–	–
Peterborough clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 7.1 5.7 3.1 1 6.6 10.4 8.4 4.6 2 5.0 7.9 6.4 3.5 3 2.6 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bromley down, Peterborough across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bromley at home: 0.60 scored, 2.60 conceded a game (last 5). Peterborough away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Bromley, 1.63 for Peterborough. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 7 Sept

BROMLEY

LDWLLL0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–4

PETERBOROUGH

DLLWDL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockport County	11	+12	22
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
10	Leicester	10	+1	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
13	Luton	10	+1	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	10	−8	7