Bromley v Leicester prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Bromley 0–4 Leicester BROMLEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bromley win~~38%

~~The market said~~22%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bromley win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bromley 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Bromley v Leicester
5′A goal for Leicester on 4′. 0–0 · 37–25–37
5′We said Bromley at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–20–63
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Bromley 0–1 Leicester
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Bromley win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Leicester win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Bromley win 37%)
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Samuel Charles Braybrooke · Leicester
17′16′: John Lundstram on the scoresheet for Leicester. 0–1 · 15–21–64
17′We said Bromley at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Bromley 0–2 Leicester · John Lundstram
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Bromley win: 38% at kick-off, 5% now
23′We said Bromley at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' George Saville · Bromley
45′HALF-TIME Bromley 0–3 Leicester
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bromley · On: Michael Cheek · Off: Omar Sowunmi
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bromley · On: Jodi Jones · Off: Richard Taylor
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bromley · On: Kamari Antonio Grant · Off: corey whitely
45′SECOND HALF Bromley 0–3 Leicester
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bromley · On: Kamil Amadu Conteh · Off: Victor Adeboyejo
46′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–2–98
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bromley 0–3 Leicester
47′45′: Luke Thomas on the scoresheet for Leicester, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Markus Ifill · Bromley
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Emil Riis Jakobsen · Leicester
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
68′Leicester ahead on 67′ through Emil Riis Jakobsen. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bromley 0–4 Leicester
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Leicester · On: Will Smallbone · Off: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Leicester · On: Liam Cullen · Off: Emil Riis Jakobsen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Leicester · On: Conor Chaplin · Off: Louis Page
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Leicester · On: Bobby Reid · Off: K. Doyle
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Leicester · On: Harry Howell · Off: William Thomas-Alves
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bromley · On: Mikel Miller · Off: Adam Jackson
FTFULL TIME Bromley 0–4 Leicester
FTBromley 0–4 Leicester · Bromley win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bromley just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bromley 38%, draw 25%, Leicester 38%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Bromley v LeicesterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Bromley win38%

Draw25%

Leicester win38%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueHayes Lane

Line-ups

Bromley

4-1-4-1

Leicester

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bromley

Leicester

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
22	Bromley	9	−12	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Leicester to visit Oxford City in FA Cup first round - full drawBBC Sport · 19 Oct 19:13 · Leicester, Oxford City

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bromley

4-1-4-1

1 G. Smith

12 Marcus Lemar Ifill

5 O. Sowunmi

45 A. Jackson

3 R. Taylor

6 G. Saville

18 C. Whitely

16 W. Hondermarck

28 J. McKiernan

11 M. Pinnock

20 V. Adeboyejo

Coach · A. Woodman

Substitutes

10 · J. Jones

14 · N. Kabamba

19 · M. Miller

31 · O. Mason

9 · M. Cheek

22 · K. Conteh

21 · Kamari Antonio Grant

Leicester

3-4-2-1

29 A. McCarthy

16 W. O'Hora

15 H. Souttar

5 C. Okoli

37 W. Alves

6 J. Lundstram

25 L. Page

33 L. Thomas

36 S. Braybrooke

27 K. Doyle

17 E. Riis

Coach · Russell Martin

Substitutes

14 · B. De Cordova-Reid

20 · H. Howell

24 · I. Kangasniemi

21 · F. Ravizzoli

12 · W. Smallbone

11 · L. Cullen

8 · C. Chaplin

Our number · bromley winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

38% The market22%

Us38%

~~Market~~22%

We make Bromley a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 22%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bromley v Leicester~~1.45 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~22 v 14

~~The market · Bromley win~~22% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bromley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 22% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bromley win	38%	22%	+16
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Leicester win	38%	55%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	83%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Bromley or draw	62%	45%	+17
Bromley clean sheet	24%	–	–
Leicester clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 8.2 5.8 2.8 1 8.2 11.3 8.1 4.0 2 5.8 8.1 5.8 2.8 3 2.8 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bromley down, Leicester across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bromley at home: 0.75 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Leicester away: 1.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Bromley, 1.44 for Leicester. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 1 Sept

BROMLEY

LLDWLL0–5 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

LEICESTER

WLWDLW2–0 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7