Bradford v Stevenage prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bradford 2–0 Stevenage BRADFORD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bradford win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.522

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.404

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bradford win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bradford was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
1′KICK-OFF Bradford v Stevenage
8′Much as we predicted: Bradford was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–27
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bradford win 35%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bradford win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Bradford 0–0 Stevenage
45′SECOND HALF Bradford 0–0 Stevenage
48′We said Bradford at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Stevenage · On: Ben Broggio · Off: Wanya Marcal
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Bradford · On: Corey O'Keeffe · Off: Kayden Jackson
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Bradford · On: Nick Powell · Off: Jake Beesley
60′We said Bradford at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Bradford win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bradford · On: Stephen Humphrys · Off: Bobby Pointon
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bradford · On: Will Swan · Off: Adam Phillips
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stevenage · On: Louis Thompson · Off: Matthew Smith
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stevenage · On: Michael Mellon · Off: O. Sanderson
68′We said Bradford at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
75′We said Bradford at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
79′We published Bradford at 41%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Bradford win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bradford 1–0 Stevenage
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Bradford win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Bradford win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Daniel Phillips · Stevenage
80′79′: Antoni Sarcevic on the scoresheet for Bradford, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Callumm Connolly · Bradford
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stevenage · On: Terry·Taylor · Off: Josh Magennis
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stevenage · On: Phoenix Patterson · Off: Daniel Phillips
84′We published Bradford at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′We published Bradford at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Bradford 2–0 Stevenage
88′Bradford ahead on 87′ through Will Swan. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Bradford · On: Macauley Gillesphey · Off: Antoni Sarcevic
FTFULL TIME Bradford 2–0 Stevenage
FTBradford 2–0 Stevenage · Bradford win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bradford are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bradford 41%, draw 32%, Stevenage 27%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Bradford v StevenageBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bradford win41%

Draw32%

Stevenage win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueValley Parade

Line-ups

Bradford

Stevenage

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bradford

Stevenage

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ex-Chelsea man faces Middlesbrough issue - Bradford City & Lincoln must be on 2027 alertFootball League World · 16 Oct 19:00 · Middlesbrough, Bradford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bradford

Formation not confirmed

21 J. McCracken

28 M. Pennington

15 A. Baldwin

16 G. Pratt

19 K. Jackson

10 A. Sarcevic

6 C. Connolly

3 I. Touray

8 A. Phillips

23 B. Pointon

9 J. Beesley

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · C. Dawson

5 · M. Gillesphey

27 · C. O'Keeffe

22 · K. Morgan

25 · N. Powell

24 · W. Swan

11 · S. Humphrys

Stevenage

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Setford

2 L. James-Wildin

15 T. Vancooten

5 C. Piergianni

14 S. Earley

18 O. Sanderson

8 D. Phillips

24 M. Smith

25 W. Marcal

10 D. Kemp

9 J. Magennis

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Barden

16 · K. Casey

23 · L. Thompson

7 · T. Taylor

27 · B. Broggio

44 · P. Patterson

28 · M. Mellon

Our number · bradford winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Bradford a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bradford v Stevenage~~1.07 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~2 v 9

~~The market · Bradford win~~48% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bradford win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bradford win	41%	48%	−7
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Stevenage win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	29%	42%	−13
Both teams to score	36%	47%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	56%	67%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	12%	23%	−11
Bradford or draw	73%	76%	−3
Bradford clean sheet	45%	–	–
Stevenage clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 15.6 12.4 5.0 1 16.4 13.0 5.3 2 8.7 6.9 2.8 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bradford down, Stevenage across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,888 League One matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bradford at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stevenage away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Bradford, 0.81 for Stevenage. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BRA 0–1 STE · STE 1–1 BRA · STE 2–3 BRA · BRA 3–0 STE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

BRADFORD

LWWWDD1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

STEVENAGE

DDWWLW2–2 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	10	+6	19
2	Bradford	9	+3	17
3	Stockport County	9	+9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	+7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	+3	16
6	Reading	9	+11	15
7	Oxford United	8	+7	15
8	Sheffield Wednesday	8	+7	15
9	Stevenage	8	+4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	−2	12
11	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	−3	12
13	Leyton Orient	9	+2	11
14	Luton	8	+1	11
15	Wycombe	9	−6	10
16	Doncaster	8	0	9
17	Leicester	8	−4	9
18	Blackpool	8	−1	8
19	Barnsley	8	−7	8
20	Peterborough	9	−7	8
21	Bromley	8	−11	8
22	Notts County	8	−3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	−6	6
24	Wigan	8	−8	4