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Bradford v Leyton Orient

Bradford

0–0Full time

Leyton Orient

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Valley Parade

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bradford 0–0 Leyton Orient BRADFORD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bradford win~~45%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.988

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bradford win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Bradford 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
2′KICK-OFF Bradford v Leyton Orient
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' James Morris · Leyton Orient
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Bradford win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bradford win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Bradford 0–0 Leyton Orient
49′We said Bradford at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–44–23
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bradford · On: Nick Powell · Off: Jake Beesley
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jaze Kabia · Leyton Orient
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Leyton Orient · On: Aaron Connolly · Off: Yusuf Akhamrich
62′🟨 YELLOW · 26' James Morris · Leyton Orient
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bradford · On: Nick Powell · Off: Jake Beesley
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jaze Kabia · Leyton Orient
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Leyton Orient · On: Aaron Connolly · Off: Yusuf Akhamrich
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Leyton Orient · On: Idris El Mizouni · Off: Jaze Kabia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bradford · On: Will Swan · Off: Adam Phillips
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Matthew Pennington · Bradford
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Alexander George Henry Gilbert · Leyton Orient
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Leyton Orient · On: Phillip Chinedu · Off: Alfie Gilchrist
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Bradford · On: Corey O'Keeffe · Off: Ibou Touray
FTFULL TIME Bradford 0–0 Leyton Orient
FTBradford 0–0 Leyton Orient · Bradford win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bradford win45%

Draw27%

Leyton Orient win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Valley Parade

Referee · Dean Whitestone

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bradford

Formation not confirmed

21 J. McCracken

28 M. Pennington

15 A. Baldwin

16 G. Pratt

19 K. Jackson

10 A. Sarcevic

6 C. Connolly

3 I. Touray

8 A. Phillips

23 B. Pointon

9 J. Beesley

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · C. Dawson

5 · M. Gillesphey

27 · C. O'Keeffe

32 · G. Lapslie

22 · K. Morgan

25 · N. Powell

24 · W. Swan

Leyton Orient

3-4-2-1

1 N. Baxter

5 J. Olowu

6 W. Forrester

12 A. Gilchrist

2 F. Stevens

20 A. Gilbert

14 I. Hayden

3 J. Morris

22 Y. Akhamrich

9 J. Kabia

18 D. Scarlett

Coach · Richie Wellens

Substitutes

33 · K. Cahill

34 · P. Chinedu

8 · I. El Mizouni

25 · C. Wellens

27 · T. Springett

10 · A. Connolly

17 · A. Dobra

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bradford

Formation not confirmed

21 J. McCracken

28 M. Pennington

15 A. Baldwin

16 G. Pratt

19 K. Jackson

10 A. Sarcevic

6 C. Connolly

3 I. Touray

8 A. Phillips

23 B. Pointon

9 J. Beesley

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · C. Dawson

5 · M. Gillesphey

27 · C. O'Keeffe

32 · G. Lapslie

22 · K. Morgan

25 · N. Powell

24 · W. Swan

Leyton Orient

3-4-2-1

1 N. Baxter

5 J. Olowu

6 W. Forrester

12 A. Gilchrist

2 F. Stevens

20 A. Gilbert

14 I. Hayden

3 J. Morris

22 Y. Akhamrich

9 J. Kabia

18 D. Scarlett

Coach · Richie Wellens

Substitutes

33 · K. Cahill

34 · P. Chinedu

8 · I. El Mizouni

25 · C. Wellens

27 · T. Springett

10 · A. Connolly

17 · A. Dobra

Our number · bradford winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market60%

Us45%

~~Market~~60%

We make Bradford a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bradford win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bradford win	45%	60%	−16
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Leyton Orient win	28%	17%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	42%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	32%	−10
Bradford or draw	72%	83%	−11
Bradford clean sheet	36%	–	–
Leyton Orient clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.5 9.5 4.8 1 12.6 12.7 6.4 2.2 2 8.6 8.6 4.4 3 3.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bradford down, Leyton Orient across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,875 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bradford at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Leyton Orient away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Bradford, 1.02 for Leyton Orient. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRA 2–1 LEY · LEY 2–1 BRA

Form · last six in League One

BRADFORD

LLWWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

LEYTON ORIENT

LWDLWL1–3 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plymouth	9	+5	16
2	Bradford	8	+3	16
3	Huddersfield	8	+7	15
4	Sheffield Wednesday	7	+7	14
5	Stockport County	8	+7	13
6	Cambridge United	8	+2	13
7	Reading	8	+7	12
8	Burton Albion	9	−1	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	−2	12
10	Oxford United	6	+6	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	+2	10
12	Wycombe	8	−3	10
13	Stevenage	7	+3	9
14	Leicester	7	−2	9
15	Blackpool	7	0	8
16	Luton	7	−2	8
17	Mansfield Town	7	−3	8
18	Barnsley	7	−5	8
19	Bromley	7	−10	8
20	Notts County	7	−2	7
21	Doncaster	7	−1	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	−2	6
23	Peterborough	8	−9	5
24	Wigan	7	−7	4