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Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons

Blackpool
2–0Full time
Milton Keynes Dons

League One · TUE 20 OCT · Bloomfield Road

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Blackpool 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons BLACKPOOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Blackpool win49%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.393
The market’s Brier score0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Blackpool win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Blackpool was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons
  4. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Milton Keynes Dons
  5. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Oliver Casey · Blackpool
  6. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Blackpool win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Blackpool 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Blackpool · On: Leighton Clarkson · Off: George Honeyman
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Blackpool 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons
  10. 48′We said Blackpool at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–40–23
  11. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Blackpool win 38%)
  12. 55′We said Blackpool at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
  13. 56′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–45–21
  14. 58′9 shots for Milton Keynes Dons, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–46–21
  15. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Ben Wiles · Off: ibrahim fullah
  16. 64′We said Blackpool at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
  17. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Blackpool win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  18. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Albie Morgan · Blackpool
  19. 68′Milton Keynes Dons have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 26–56–17
  20. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Blackpool · On: Dion Charles · Off: Tom Bloxham
  21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Blackpool · On: Dale Taylor · Off: Jerry Yates
  22. 69′69′: Karoy Anderson on the scoresheet for Blackpool, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  23. 69′We published Blackpool at 49%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  24. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Blackpool 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons · Karoy Anderson
  25. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Blackpool win: 49% at kick-off, 83% now
  26. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Blackpool win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 58%)
  27. 72′We published Blackpool at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  28. 78′We published Blackpool at 49%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  29. 78′Blackpool ahead on 77′ through Dale Taylor. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  30. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Blackpool 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons
  31. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Blackpool win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  32. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Cohen Bramall · Off: Elijah Campbell
  33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Dan Crowley · Off: Marvin Ekpiteta
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Daniel Barlaser · Off: Ryan Wintle
  35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Blackpool · On: Finley Munroe · Off: Ilmari Niskanen
  36. 82′We published Blackpool at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sam Nombe · Milton Keynes Dons
  38. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Milton Keynes Dons · On: Gethin Jones · Off: Samuel Silvera
  39. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Blackpool · On: Jordan Brown · Off: Karoy Anderson
  40. FTFULL TIME Blackpool 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons
  41. FTBlackpool 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons · Blackpool win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Blackpool are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Blackpool 49%, draw 24%, Milton Keynes Dons 27%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Blackpool v Milton Keynes DonsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Blackpool win49%
Draw24%
Milton Keynes Dons win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBloomfield Road

Line-ups

Blackpool

4-1-3-2

Milton Keynes Dons

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Blackpool

Milton Keynes Dons

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
18Milton Keynes Dons9−59
20Blackpool9−38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Blackpool

4-1-3-2

1 B. Peacock-Farrell

28 J. Williams

4 O. Casey

3 Z. Ashworth

21 I. Niskanen

8 A. Morgan

11 J. Bowler

17 Karoy Anderson

10 G. Honeyman

14 T. Bloxham

12 J. Yates

Coach · I. Evatt

Substitutes

6 · J. Brown

19 · D. Charles

7 · L. Clarkson

15 · H. Coulson

2 · A. Lyons

26 · Finley Munroe

18 · D. Taylor

Milton Keynes Dons

3-1-4-2

23 W. Dennis

21 M. Ekpiteta

5 C. Goode

32 J. Sanders

24 R. Wintle

17 S. Silvera

22 I. Fullah

8 A. Gilbey

20 Elijah Xavier Campbell

9 S. Nombe

10 A. Collins

Coach · P. Warne

Substitutes

28 · J. Matete

26 · B. Wiles

7 · D. Crowley

2 · G. Jones

15 · C. Bramall

4 · D. Barlaser

51 · S. Stacey

Our number · blackpool winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
49% The market39%
Us49%
Market39%

We make Blackpool a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons1.65 – 1.15
Form · last six in League One this season · since 2 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 8 v 920 v 18
The market · Blackpool win39% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:04
Our probability · Blackpool win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Blackpool win49%39%+10
Draw24%26%−2
Milton Keynes Dons win27%35%−8
Over 2.5 goals53%60%−7
Both teams to score54%63%−9
Over 1.5 goals76%81%−5
Over 3.5 goals31%39%−8
Blackpool or draw73%65%+8
Blackpool clean sheet32%––
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 6.3 7.2 4.1 1 10.2 11.3 6.5 2.5 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 4.5 5.1 2.9 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Blackpool down, Milton Keynes Dons across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 2 Sept

BLACKPOOL

LLDLLL1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 0–2

MILTON KEYNES DONS

LDDDLW1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bradford10+520
2Stockport County10+1019
3Huddersfield10+919
4Plymouth11+419
5Cambridge United10+419
6Sheffield Wednesday9+1218
7Reading10+1015
8Oxford United8+715
9Leyton Orient10+414
10Burton Albion11−213
11Wycombe10−413
12Stevenage9+212
13Mansfield Town9−212
14Leicester9−312
15AFC Wimbledon10−812
16Luton9011
17Doncaster9−19
18Milton Keynes Dons9−59
19Peterborough10−79
20Blackpool9−38
21Barnsley9−88
22Bromley9−128
23Notts County9−57
24Wigan9−77

The competition's standings before kick-off.