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Model 1.2

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Barnsley v Cambridge United

Barnsley
1–2Full time
Cambridge United

League One · SAT 17 OCT · Oakwell Ground

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United BARNSLEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Barnsley win48%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.811
The market’s Brier score0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Barnsley win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Barnsley 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Barnsley v Cambridge United
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: Barnsley 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
  5. 37′Barnsley have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–33–26
  6. 40′8 shots for Barnsley, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–34–25
  7. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Reyes Cleary · Barnsley
  8. 42′We said Barnsley at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  9. 42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  10. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Barnsley 1–0 Cambridge United
  11. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
  12. 43′Vimal Yoganathan scores for Barnsley on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  13. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Arley Kay · Barnsley
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Barnsley 1–0 Cambridge United
  15. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Raees Bangura-Williams · Off: Owen Moxon
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Barnsley 1–0 Cambridge United
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Shayne Lavery · Off: Isaac Heath
  18. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Connor O'Riordan · Barnsley
  19. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Raees Bangura-Williams · Cambridge United
  20. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Shayne Lavery · Cambridge United
  21. 53′52′: Ben Knight on the scoresheet for Cambridge United, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
  22. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Barnsley 1–1 Cambridge United · Ben Knight (assist Shayne Lavery)
  23. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
  24. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Barnsley win 35%)
  25. 54′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–42–23
  26. 54′Barnsley have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
  27. 55′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
  28. 64′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
  29. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cambridge United · On: George Hoddle · Off: Dominic Ball
  31. 68′20 shots for Barnsley, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 27–55–18
  32. 71′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
  33. 77′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
  34. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Tobi Adeyemo · Barnsley
  35. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cambridge United · On: Louis Appere · Off: Gassan Ahadme
  36. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  37. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ben Knight · Cambridge United
  38. 81′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
  39. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barnsley · On: O'Rian Andrew Reid · Off: Vimal Yoganathan
  40. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Barnsley · On: A. Richards · Off: Royce Brownlie
  41. 85′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
  42. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Barnsley · On: Clayton Taylor · Off: Tobi Adeyemo
  43. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  44. 91′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  45. 91′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  46. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United
  47. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Cambridge United win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
  48. 92′Cambridge United ahead on 90′ through Shayne Lavery. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  49. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cambridge United · On: Patrick Bauer · Off: Shayne Lavery
  50. FTFULL TIME Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United
  51. FTBarnsley 1–2 Cambridge United · Barnsley win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barnsley are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barnsley 48%, draw 24%, Cambridge United 28%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Barnsley v Cambridge UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barnsley win48%
Draw24%
Cambridge United win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueOakwell Ground

Line-ups

Barnsley

4-2-3-1

Cambridge United

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barnsley

Cambridge United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Cambridge United9+316
19Barnsley8−78

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barnsley

4-2-3-1

25 R. Ravenhill

11 T. Noslin

6 C. O'Riordan

5 J. Shepherd

2 A. Kay

8 C. McGeehan

22 P. Kelly

32 R. Brownlie

45 V. Yoganathan

19 R. Cleary

7 T. Adeyemo

Coach · Daniel Stendel

Substitutes

1 · C. Slicker

12 · J. Okedina

4 · S. Gale

30 · J. Bland

17 · A. Richards

13 · C. Taylor

46 · O. Reid

Cambridge United

4-1-4-1

1 J. Eastwood

2 L. Bennett

15 C. Heffernan

6 K. Watts

22 Z. Bradshaw

4 D. Ball

10 B. Knight

17 P. Mpanzu

8 O. Moxon

7 I. Heath

14 G. Ahadme

Coach · Neil Harris

Substitutes

13 · Gabe Breeze

29 · S. Curtis

5 · P. Bauer

19 · S. Lavery

38 · G. Hoddle

9 · L. Appere

44 · R. Bangura-Williams

Our number · barnsley winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market38%
Us48%
Market38%

We make Barnsley a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Barnsley v Cambridge United1.70 – 1.23
Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 8 v 1619 v 5
The market · Barnsley win38% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 03:5917 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Barnsley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Barnsley win48%38%+10
Draw24%26%−2
Cambridge United win28%36%−8
Over 2.5 goals56%58%−2
Both teams to score57%61%−4
Over 1.5 goals79%79%0
Over 3.5 goals34%37%−3
Barnsley or draw72%64%+8
Barnsley clean sheet30%––
Cambridge United clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.5 6.7 4.1 1 9.2 11.0 6.7 2.8 2 7.7 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 4.4 5.3 3.2 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Barnsley down, Cambridge United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsBAR 1–1 CAM · CAM 1–1 BAR · BAR 0–2 CAM · CAM 0–4 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

BARNSLEY

WWLLDL3–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3

CAMBRIDGE UNITED

WDWDDW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Plymouth10+619
2Bradford9+317
3Stockport County9+916
4Huddersfield9+716
5Cambridge United9+316
6Reading9+1115
7Oxford United8+715
8Sheffield Wednesday8+715
9Stevenage8+412
10Burton Albion10−212
11Mansfield Town9−212
12AFC Wimbledon9−312
13Leyton Orient9+211
14Luton8+111
15Wycombe9−610
16Doncaster809
17Leicester8−49
18Blackpool8−18
19Barnsley8−78
20Peterborough9−78
21Bromley8−118
22Notts County8−37
23Milton Keynes Dons8−66
24Wigan8−84

The competition's standings before kick-off.