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Barnsley v Cambridge United
Barnsley
Cambridge UnitedLeague One · SAT 17 OCT · Oakwell Ground
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Barnsley win at 48%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Barnsley 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
- 1′KICK-OFF Barnsley v Cambridge United
- 8′Little has changed for our model: Barnsley 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
- 37′Barnsley have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–33–26
- 40′8 shots for Barnsley, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–34–25
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Reyes Cleary · Barnsley
- 42′We said Barnsley at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
- 42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Barnsley 1–0 Cambridge United
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
- 43′Vimal Yoganathan scores for Barnsley on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Arley Kay · Barnsley
- 45′HALF-TIME Barnsley 1–0 Cambridge United
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Raees Bangura-Williams · Off: Owen Moxon
- 45′SECOND HALF Barnsley 1–0 Cambridge United
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambridge United · On: Shayne Lavery · Off: Isaac Heath
- 47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Connor O'Riordan · Barnsley
- 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Raees Bangura-Williams · Cambridge United
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Shayne Lavery · Cambridge United
- 53′52′: Ben Knight on the scoresheet for Cambridge United, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Barnsley 1–1 Cambridge United · Ben Knight (assist Shayne Lavery)
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Barnsley win 35%)
- 54′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–42–23
- 54′Barnsley have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
- 55′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
- 64′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cambridge United · On: George Hoddle · Off: Dominic Ball
- 68′20 shots for Barnsley, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 27–55–18
- 71′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
- 77′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Tobi Adeyemo · Barnsley
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cambridge United · On: Louis Appere · Off: Gassan Ahadme
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ben Knight · Cambridge United
- 81′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barnsley · On: O'Rian Andrew Reid · Off: Vimal Yoganathan
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Barnsley · On: A. Richards · Off: Royce Brownlie
- 85′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Barnsley · On: Clayton Taylor · Off: Tobi Adeyemo
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Barnsley win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 91′We said Barnsley at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
- 91′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–4–96
- 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United
- 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Cambridge United win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
- 92′Cambridge United ahead on 90′ through Shayne Lavery. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cambridge United · On: Patrick Bauer · Off: Shayne Lavery
- FTFULL TIME Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United
- FTBarnsley 1–2 Cambridge United · Barnsley win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassBarnsley are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Barnsley 48%, draw 24%, Cambridge United 28%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Barnsley win48%
Cambridge United win28%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueOakwell Ground
Match timeline
All events
BarnsleyMIN
Cambridge UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Barnsley
4-2-3-1
Cambridge United
4-1-4-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Barnsley
Cambridge United
Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One
Last match: 10 Oct · the English League One
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Barnsley
4-2-3-1
25 R. Ravenhill
11 T. Noslin
6 C. O'Riordan
5 J. Shepherd
2 A. Kay
8 C. McGeehan
22 P. Kelly
32 R. Brownlie
45 V. Yoganathan
19 R. Cleary
7 T. Adeyemo
Coach · Daniel Stendel
Substitutes
1 · C. Slicker
12 · J. Okedina
4 · S. Gale
30 · J. Bland
17 · A. Richards
13 · C. Taylor
46 · O. Reid
Cambridge United
4-1-4-1
1 J. Eastwood
2 L. Bennett
15 C. Heffernan
6 K. Watts
22 Z. Bradshaw
4 D. Ball
10 B. Knight
17 P. Mpanzu
8 O. Moxon
7 I. Heath
14 G. Ahadme
Coach · Neil Harris
Substitutes
13 · Gabe Breeze
29 · S. Curtis
5 · P. Bauer
19 · S. Lavery
38 · G. Hoddle
9 · L. Appere
44 · R. Bangura-Williams
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Barnsley
4-2-3-1
25 R. Ravenhill
11 T. Noslin
6 C. O'Riordan
5 J. Shepherd
2 A. Kay
8 C. McGeehan
22 P. Kelly
32 R. Brownlie
45 V. Yoganathan
19 R. Cleary
7 T. Adeyemo
Coach · Daniel Stendel
Substitutes
1 · C. Slicker
12 · J. Okedina
4 · S. Gale
30 · J. Bland
17 · A. Richards
13 · C. Taylor
46 · O. Reid
Cambridge United
4-1-4-1
1 J. Eastwood
2 L. Bennett
15 C. Heffernan
6 K. Watts
22 Z. Bradshaw
4 D. Ball
10 B. Knight
17 P. Mpanzu
8 O. Moxon
7 I. Heath
14 G. Ahadme
Coach · Neil Harris
Substitutes
13 · Gabe Breeze
29 · S. Curtis
5 · P. Bauer
19 · S. Lavery
38 · G. Hoddle
9 · L. Appere
44 · R. Bangura-Williams
We make Barnsley a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 48% | 38% | +10 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Cambridge United win | 28% | 36% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Barnsley or draw | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Barnsley clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Cambridge United clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug
BARNSLEY
CAMBRIDGE UNITED
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | +11 | 15 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | +7 | 15 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | +7 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | +4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | −2 | 12 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | −2 | 12 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | −3 | 12 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | −6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | −4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | −1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | −7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | −11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | −6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Plymouth
Bradford
Stockport County
Huddersfield
Reading
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
Stevenage
Burton Albion
Mansfield Town
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Luton
Wycombe
Doncaster
Leicester
Blackpool
Peterborough
Bromley
Notts County
Milton Keynes Dons
Wigan