AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Wycombe WYCOMBE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Wycombe win~~48%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.869

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wycombe win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wycombe 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
1′KICK-OFF AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe
30′A goal for AFC Wimbledon on 29′. 0–0 · 26–32–42
31′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 58–25–17
31′⚽ GOAL · 29' AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Wycombe · Jayden Stockley
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Wycombe win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' AFC Wimbledon win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Wycombe win 42%)
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 59–25–16
39′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
45′HALF-TIME AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Wycombe
45′SECOND HALF AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Wycombe
54′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Wycombe win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
60′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 20–49–31
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Wycombe
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Wycombe win: 48% at kick-off, 31% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was AFC Wimbledon win 69%)
61′60′: Fred Onyedinma on the scoresheet for Wycombe, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–50–30
63′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–52–29
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wycombe · On: Silko Thomas · Off: Jamie Mullins
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AFC Wimbledon · On: Callum Maycock · Off: Ollie Harrison
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AFC Wimbledon · On: Steven Sessegnon · Off: Harry Cornick
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Steve Seddon · AFC Wimbledon
70′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–60–24
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wycombe · On: Aaron Morley · Off: Cauley Woodrow
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Wycombe win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AFC Wimbledon · On: H. Hedges · Off: Aron Sasu
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AFC Wimbledon · On: Zack Nelson · Off: Myles Hippolyte
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Wycombe win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Wycombe · On: Luke Leahy · Off: Josh Scowen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Wycombe · On: Junior Quitirna · Off: Caolan Boyd-Munce
91′We said Wycombe at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Wycombe
FTAFC Wimbledon 1–1 Wycombe · Wycombe win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wycombe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Wimbledon 28%, draw 25%, Wycombe 48%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on AFC Wimbledon v WycombeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AFC Wimbledon win28%

Draw25%

Wycombe win48%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenuePlough Lane

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon

5-4-1

Wycombe

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Wimbledon

Wycombe

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12

In the news

from the pressAll ›

AFC Wimbledon's Skiverton diagnosed with cancerBBC Sport · 23 Oct 16:45 · AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon: Ex-Chelsea star leading £87m Dons investment bidEvening Standard · 22 Oct 13:10 · AFC Wimbledon, Chelsea

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon

5-4-1

39 J. Bursik

3 S. Seddon

9 J. Stockley

7 J. Tilley

6 R. Johnson

5 O. Harrison

12 A. Smith

17 A. Yiadom

23 H. Cornick

29 A. Sasu

21 M. Hippolyte

Coach · J. Jackson

Substitutes

34 · Harry Hedges

22 · riley moran

8 · C. Maycock

20 · J. McDonnell

10 · Z. Nelson

2 · S. Sessegnon

15 · F. Simmonds

Wycombe

4-2-3-1

23 C. Hazard

2 J. Grimmer

26 C. Taylor

45 A. Hagelskjær

3 D. Harvie

4 J. Scowen

8 C. Boyd-Munce

44 F. Onyedinma

21 Jamie Mullins

12 C. Woodrow

15 J. Wareham

Coach · T. Hounsell

Substitutes

33 · J. Wildsmith

11 · Silko Amari Otieno Thomas

7 · Armando Quitirna

5 · A. Morley

10 · L. Leahy

27 · S. Cook

17 · D. Casey

Our number · wycombe winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

48% The market51%

Us48%

~~Market~~51%

We make Wycombe a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe~~1.14 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~16 v 15

~~The market · Wycombe win~~51% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wycombe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Wimbledon win	28%	23%	+5
Draw	25%	25%	0
Wycombe win	48%	51%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
AFC Wimbledon or draw	52%	49%	+3
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet	21%	–	–
Wycombe clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 10.5 8.2 4.4 1 7.6 11.7 9.2 4.9 2 4.3 6.6 5.2 2.8 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Wimbledon down, Wycombe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,911 League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Wycombe away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for AFC Wimbledon, 1.59 for Wycombe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WYC 2–0 AFC · AFC 2–1 WYC · AFC 1–0 WYC · WYC 1–0 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

AFC WIMBLEDON

WDDLLL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–3

WYCOMBE

WWDLWD3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockport County	11	+12	22
2	Huddersfield	11	+12	22
3	Bradford	11	+5	21
4	Cambridge United	11	+4	20
5	Plymouth	12	+1	19
6	Reading	11	+11	18
7	Sheffield Wednesday	10	+10	18
8	Oxford United	9	+8	18
9	Stevenage	10	+5	15
10	Leicester	10	+1	15
11	Mansfield Town	10	+1	15
12	Leyton Orient	11	+3	14
13	Luton	10	+1	14
14	Burton Albion	12	−2	14
15	Wycombe	11	−4	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	11	−11	12
17	Blackpool	10	−1	11
18	Notts County	10	−3	10
19	Doncaster	10	−3	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	10	−7	9
21	Peterborough	11	−10	9
22	Barnsley	10	−9	8
23	Bromley	10	−16	8
24	Wigan	10	−8	7