AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

AFC Wimbledon 0–3 Mansfield Town MANSFIELD TOWN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mansfield Town win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.459

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mansfield Town win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mansfield Town 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 31–26–42
1′KICK-OFF AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town
23′A goal for Mansfield Town on 22′. 0–0 · 30–31–39
23′We said Mansfield Town at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Mansfield Town
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Mansfield Town win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
24′A goal for Mansfield Town on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
28′27′: Michael Smith on the scoresheet for Mansfield Town. 0–1 · 9–20–71
28′We said Mansfield Town at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Mansfield Town · Michael Smith (assist Stephen McLaughlin)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Mansfield Town win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Mansfield Town win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield Town
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Andy Yiadom · AFC Wimbledon
45′HALF-TIME AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Mansfield Town
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AFC Wimbledon · On: Harry Cornick · Off: Andy Yiadom
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mansfield Town · On: Rhys Oates · Off: George Abbott
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AFC Wimbledon · On: James Tilley · Off: Callum Maycock
46′SECOND HALF AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Mansfield Town
52′We said Mansfield Town at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
56′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Mansfield Town · On: Kyle Knoyle · Off: Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon
74′Jonathan Russell scores for Mansfield Town on 73′. 0–2 · 0–1–98
74′We said Mansfield Town at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' AFC Wimbledon 0–3 Mansfield Town · Jonathan Russell
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mansfield Town · On: Frazer Blake-Tracy · Off: Stephen McLaughlin
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AFC Wimbledon · On: Ollie Harrison · Off: Freddie Simmonds
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AFC Wimbledon · On: Steven Sessegnon · Off: Zack Nelson
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Mansfield Town · On: Regan·Hendry · Off: Liam Thompson
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mansfield Town · On: George Maris · Off: Louis Reed
FTFULL TIME AFC Wimbledon 0–3 Mansfield Town
FTAFC Wimbledon 0–3 Mansfield Town · Mansfield Town win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mansfield Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Wimbledon 31%, draw 26%, Mansfield Town 43%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

AFC Wimbledon win31%

Draw26%

Mansfield Town win43%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePlough Lane

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon

5-4-1

Mansfield Town

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Wimbledon

Mansfield Town

3Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the English League One

Last match: 15 Oct · the English League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon

5-4-1

39 J. Bursik

17 A. Yiadom

15 F. Simmonds

6 R. Johnson

3 S. Seddon

29 A. Sasu

8 C. Maycock

10 Z. Nelson

12 A. Smith

21 M. Hippolyte

9 J. Stockley

Coach · J. Jackson

Substitutes

23 · H. Cornick

5 · O. Harrison

20 · J. McDonnell

2 · S. Sessegnon

7 · J. Tilley

25 · S. Goma

22 · R. Horan

Mansfield Town

3-1-4-2

1 L. Roberts

9 J. Bowery

23 A. Oshilaja

5 R. Sweeney

25 L. Reed

22 N. Moriah-Welsh

33 G. Abbott

16 L. Thompson

3 S. McLaughlin

14 M. Smith

13 J. Russell

Coach · N. Clough

Substitutes

19 · T. Roberts

18 · R. Oates

10 · G. Maris

2 · K. Knoyle

24 · R. Hendry

8 · L. Bolton

20 · F. Blake-Tracy

Our number · mansfield town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make Mansfield Town a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town~~1.18 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~15 v 13

~~The market · Mansfield Town win~~45% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mansfield Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Wimbledon win	31%	28%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Mansfield Town win	43%	45%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
AFC Wimbledon or draw	57%	55%	+2
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet	25%	–	–
Mansfield Town clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.6 10.7 7.5 3.6 1 8.9 12.3 8.6 4.1 2 5.2 7.2 5.1 2.4 3 2.1 2.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Wimbledon down, Mansfield Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,899 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mansfield Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for AFC Wimbledon, 1.42 for Mansfield Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAN 2–2 AFC · AFC 0–0 MAN · AFC 2–1 MAN · MAN 0–0 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 2 Sept

AFC WIMBLEDON

WWDDLL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5

MANSFIELD TOWN

LLDDWD0–5 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bradford	10	+5	20
2	Stockport County	10	+10	19
3	Huddersfield	10	+9	19
4	Plymouth	11	+4	19
5	Cambridge United	10	+4	19
6	Sheffield Wednesday	9	+12	18
7	Reading	10	+10	15
8	Oxford United	8	+7	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	+4	14
10	Burton Albion	11	−2	13
11	Wycombe	10	−4	13
12	Stevenage	9	+2	12
13	Mansfield Town	9	−2	12
14	Leicester	9	−3	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	−8	12
16	Luton	9	0	11
17	Doncaster	9	−1	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	−5	9
19	Peterborough	10	−7	9
20	Blackpool	9	−3	8
21	Barnsley	9	−8	8
22	Bromley	9	−12	8
23	Notts County	9	−5	7
24	Wigan	9	−7	7