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Sunderland v Brentford
SunderlandBrentfordLeague Cup · WED 28 OCT · Stadium of Light
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Brentford are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sunderland 32%, draw 27%, Brentford 41%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Sunderland win32%Brentford win41%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 16
VenueStadium of Light
Match timeline
All events
SunderlandMINBrentfordEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sunderland
Brentford
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Brentford a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 32% | 26% | +6 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Brentford win | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Sunderland or draw | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| Brentford clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · League Cup this season · since 25 Aug
SUNDERLAND
BRENTFORD