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Manchester City v Brighton
Manchester CityBrightonLeague Cup · WED 28 OCT · Etihad Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Manchester City are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Manchester City 57%, draw 22%, Brighton 21%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Manchester City win57%Brighton win21%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:30
RoundRound of 16
VenueEtihad Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Manchester CityMINBrightonEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Manchester City
Brighton
Last match: 24 Oct · the English Premier League
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Arsenal beat Everton to go level on points with leaders Man CityBBC Sport · · Everton, Manchester City
Liverpool vs Brighton: Met Office issue statement amid fixture postponement concerns due to Storm BoeloEvening Standard · · Liverpool, Brighton
Liverpool latest: Barcola, Munoz, Szoboszlai updates ahead of Brighton clashSky Sports · · Liverpool, Brighton
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Manchester City a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 0 |
| Brighton win | 21% | 21% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Manchester City or draw | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| Brighton clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · League Cup this season · since 16 Sept
MANCHESTER CITY
BRIGHTON