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Liverpool v Chelsea
LiverpoolChelseaLeague Cup · WED 28 OCT · Anfield
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Liverpool are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool 51%, draw 23%, Chelsea 26%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Liverpool win51%Chelsea win26%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 20:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueAnfield
Match timeline
All events
LiverpoolMINChelseaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Liverpool
Chelsea
Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 24 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Transfer news LIVE: Shock triple Arsenal move; Scott to Chelsea twist; Man Utd shortlist; Liverpool latestEvening Standard · · Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool
Liverpool news: Trent Alexander-Arnold tipped for rival transfer as Chelsea battle emergesMirror Football · · Liverpool, Chelsea
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Liverpool a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 51% | 37% | +14 |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Chelsea win | 26% | 37% | −11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 83% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Liverpool or draw | 74% | 63% | +11 |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · League Cup this season · since 27 Aug
LIVERPOOL
CHELSEA