Home › Football › League Cup › Everton v Newcastle
Back
Everton v Newcastle
EvertonNewcastleLeague Cup · THU 29 OCT · Hill Dickinson Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Everton just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Everton 37%, draw 27%, Newcastle 36%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Everton win37%Newcastle win36%Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 16
VenueHill Dickinson Stadium
Match timeline
All events
EvertonMINNewcastleEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Everton
Newcastle
Last match: 24 Oct · the English Premier League
Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Arsenal beat Everton to go level on points with leaders Man CityBBC Sport · · Everton, Manchester City
Blackburn Rovers will have big Newcastle United transfer envy after Notts County revelationFootball League World · · Blackburn, Newcastle, Notts County
Crystal Palace and Newcastle face off with both in search of season kickstartThe Guardian · · Crystal Palace, Newcastle
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Everton a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 37% | 42% | −5 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Newcastle win | 36% | 30% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Everton or draw | 64% | 70% | −6 |
| Everton clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · League Cup this season · since 26 Aug
EVERTON
NEWCASTLE