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Bournemouth v Aston Villa
BournemouthAston VillaLeague Cup · WED 28 OCT · Vitality Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Bournemouth are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bournemouth 42%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 33%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Bournemouth win42%Aston Villa win33%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 16
VenueVitality Stadium
Match timeline
All events
BournemouthMINAston VillaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 24 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Maresca ‘not worried’ by Guéhi’s gaffes as Aston Villa end City’s flawless startThe Guardian · · Aston Villa
Chelsea: Alex Scott transfer prediction emerges after Bournemouth U-turn on January dealEvening Standard · · Chelsea, Bournemouth Milan condemn ‘unacceptable’ racist abuse of Maignan after Bournemouth red cardFootball Italia · · AC Milan, Bournemouth Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bournemouth a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | −1 |
| Aston Villa win | 33% | 30% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Bournemouth or draw | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · League Cup this season · since 8 Sept
BOURNEMOUTH
ASTON VILLA