Tottenham Hotspur W v Arsenal W prediction · FA WSL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Tottenham Hotspur W 1–2 Arsenal W ARSENAL W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Arsenal W win~~65%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.181

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal W win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal W 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 17–18–65
1′KICK-OFF Tottenham Hotspur W v Arsenal W
14′We said Arsenal W at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–0 · 38–24–38
14′A goal for Tottenham Hotspur W on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 38–24–38
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Tottenham Hotspur W 1–0 Arsenal W
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 38% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Tottenham Hotspur W 1–1 Arsenal W
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 61% now
19′17′: Georgia Stanway on the scoresheet for Arsenal W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 18–22–61
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Tōko Koga · Tottenham Hotspur W
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
41′We said Arsenal W at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 18–29–53
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 18–30–53
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Eveliina Summanen · Tottenham Hotspur W
45′HALF-TIME Tottenham Hotspur W 1–1 Arsenal W
47′SECOND HALF Tottenham Hotspur W 1–1 Arsenal W
49′We said Arsenal W at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 17–33–49
51′8 shots for Arsenal W, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 17–35–48
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Ella morris · Off: Alice Dauphine Sombath
56′We said Arsenal W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 3–14–83
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Tottenham Hotspur W 1–2 Arsenal W
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
57′Arsenal W ahead on 56′ through Alessia Russo. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–14–83
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Caitlin Dijkstra · Tottenham Hotspur W
64′We said Arsenal W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Georgia Stanway · Arsenal W
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Shekiera·Martinez · Off: cathinka tandberg
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Kirsty Hanson · Off: Matilda Vinberg
78′We said Arsenal W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Arsenal W · On: Ona Batlle · Off: Emily Fox
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Kyra Cooney-Cross · Arsenal W
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arsenal W · On: Elisa De Almeida · Off: Stephanie Catley
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Olivia Holdt · Off: Eveliina Summanen
86′We said Arsenal W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Arsenal W win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Arsenal W · On: Stina Blackstenius · Off: Lisa Baum Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Arsenal W · On: Stina Blackstenius · Off: Olivia Smith
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Signe Gaupset · Tottenham Hotspur W
FTFULL TIME Tottenham Hotspur W 1–2 Arsenal W
FTTottenham Hotspur W 1–2 Arsenal W · Arsenal W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tottenham Hotspur W 17%, draw 18%, Arsenal W 65%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Tottenham Hotspur W v Arsenal WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tottenham Hotspur W win17%

Draw18%

Arsenal W win65%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueTottenham Hotspur Stadium

Line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur W

4-2-3-1

Arsenal W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tottenham Hotspur W

Arsenal W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

Last match: 17 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	6	+4	10
8	Arsenal W	6	−2	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Slegers and misfiring Arsenal badly need a result in WSL north London derbyThe Guardian · 23 Oct 12:58 · Women · Arsenal W

Cathinka Tandberg: ‘Spurs fans hate Arsenal. That’s how it is’The Guardian · 22 Oct 11:44 · Women · Tottenham Hotspur W, Arsenal W

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur W

4-2-3-1

1 Lize Kop

5 A. Sombath

32 T. Koga

4 C. Dijkstra

41 J. Blakstad

25 E. Summanen

24 D. Spence

13 M. Vinberg

23 V. Pelova

8 S. Gaupset

9 C. Tandberg

Coach · Martin Ho

Substitutes

19 · S. Martinez

16 · K. Hanson

18 · L. Gunning-Williams

3 · Ella morris

11 · O. Holdt

7 · J. Naz

14 · M. Nildén

6 · Amanda Nildén

12 · S. Panengstuen

Arsenal W

4-2-3-1

16 Misa Rodriguez

2 E. Fox

6 L. Williamson

7 S. Catley

24 Taylor Hinds

32 K. Cooney-Cross

4 G. Stanway

19 L. Baum

11 Olivia Smith

9 C. Foord

23 A. Russo

Coach · R. Slegers

Substitutes

1 · D. van Domselaar

3 · L. Wubben-Moy

14 · G. Reuteler

31 · S. Holmberg

5 · É. de Almeida

28 · A. Borbe

25 · S. Blackstenius

22 · Ona Batlle

Our number · arsenal w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

65% The market61%

Us65%

~~Market~~61%

We make Arsenal W a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tottenham Hotspur W v Arsenal W~~1.10 – 2.35

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~4 v 8

~~The market · Arsenal W win~~61% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tottenham Hotspur W win	17%	18%	−1
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Arsenal W win	65%	61%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Tottenham Hotspur W or draw	35%	39%	−4
Tottenham Hotspur W clean sheet	10%	–	–
Arsenal W clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.4%

0123450 2.9 8.0 8.8 6.9 4.1 1 4.0 7.7 9.4 7.3 4.3 2.12 4.5 5.2 4.0 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tottenham Hotspur W down, Arsenal W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tottenham Hotspur W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal W away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Tottenham Hotspur W, 2.35 for Arsenal W. Most likely score 1–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 12:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARS 5–2 TOT · TOT 0–0 ARS · ARS 5–0 TOT · TOT 0–3 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR W

WDWWLL3–1 · 1–1 · 7–0 · 4–0 · 1–6 · 2–6

ARSENAL W

WDDLLD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	6	+4	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Everton W	6	−1	9
7	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
8	Arsenal W	6	−2	6
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0