Manchester United W v Manchester City W prediction · FA WSL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Manchester United WDrawManchester City W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Manchester City W 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manchester United W 32%, draw 22%, Manchester City W 46%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Manchester United W v Manchester City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Manchester United W win32%

Draw22%

Manchester City W win46%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueOld Trafford

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manchester United W

Manchester City W

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manchester city w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market62%

Us46%

~~Market~~62%

We make Manchester City W a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manchester United W v Manchester City W~~1.39 – 1.71

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~5 v 1

~~The market · Manchester City W win~~62% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Manchester City W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manchester United W win	32%	17%	+15
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Manchester City W win	46%	62%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Manchester United W or draw	54%	38%	+16
Manchester United W clean sheet	18%	–	–
Manchester City W clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 8.3 6.6 3.8 1 6.9 10.1 9.0 5.2 2.2 2 4.4 7.3 6.2 3.6 3 2.0 3.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manchester United W down, Manchester City W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manchester United W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester City W away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Manchester United W, 1.71 for Manchester City W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–3 CIT · CIT 3–0 UNI · UNI 2–2 CIT · CIT 0–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept

MANCHESTER UNITED W

LLDWWW1–2 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

MANCHESTER CITY W

WWWWWW3–1 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	7	+3	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Arsenal W	7	−1	9
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
8	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0