Liverpool W v London City Lionesses W prediction · FA WSL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Liverpool WDrawLondon City Lionesses W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · London City Lionesses W 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

London City Lionesses W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool W 35%, draw 24%, London City Lionesses W 41%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Liverpool W v London City Lionesses WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Liverpool W win35%

Draw24%

London City Lionesses W win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueWest Lancashire College Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liverpool W

London City Lionesses W

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
8	Liverpool W	6	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · london city lionesses w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

41% The market53%

Us41%

~~Market~~53%

We make London City Lionesses W a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Liverpool W v London City Lionesses W~~1.32 – 1.47

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~8 v 3

~~The market · London City Lionesses W win~~53% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · London City Lionesses W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liverpool W win	35%	22%	+13
Draw	24%	25%	−1
London City Lionesses W win	41%	53%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	53%	52%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
Liverpool W or draw	59%	47%	+12
Liverpool W clean sheet	23%	–	–
London City Lionesses W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 9.7 6.6 3.3 1 8.8 11.2 8.6 4.2 2 5.4 7.7 5.6 2.8 3 2.4 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liverpool W down, London City Lionesses W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Liverpool W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). London City Lionesses W away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Liverpool W, 1.47 for London City Lionesses W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LIV 0–0 LON · LON 1–0 LIV · LON 0–2 LIV · LON 1–1 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept

LIVERPOOL W

WDLWLL4–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

LONDON CITY LIONESSES W

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 6–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	7	+3	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Arsenal W	7	−1	9
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
8	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0