Everton W v Manchester United W prediction · FA WSL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Everton WDrawManchester United W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Manchester United W 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester United W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Everton W 22%, draw 24%, Manchester United W 54%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Everton W v Manchester United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Everton W win22%

Draw24%

Manchester United W win54%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGoodison Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Everton W

Manchester United W

10Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
7	Everton W	6	−1	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

What have Man Utd changed to turn around WSL form?BBC Sport · 25 Oct 07:58 · Women · Manchester United W

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manchester united w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Manchester United W a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Everton W v Manchester United W~~0.90 – 1.61

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~7 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Everton W win	22%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Manchester United W win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Everton W or draw	46%	–	–
Everton W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Manchester United W clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 7.7 13.6 10.5 5.7 2.4 1 7.9 11.0 9.2 5.0 2.0 2 3.4 5.3 4.2 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Everton W down, Manchester United W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 705 FA WSL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Everton W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester United W away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Everton W, 1.61 for Manchester United W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAN 2–1 EVE · EVE 1–4 MAN · MAN 2–0 EVE · EVE 0–2 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept

EVERTON W

LWWLWL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

MANCHESTER UNITED W

LLDWWW1–2 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	7	+3	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Arsenal W	7	−1	9
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
8	Brighton W	7	+3	8
9	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	West Ham W	7	−8	6
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0