Everton W v Aston Villa W prediction · FA WSL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Everton WDrawAston Villa W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Everton W 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Everton W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Everton W 43%, draw 24%, Aston Villa W 33%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Everton W v Aston Villa WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Everton W win43%

Draw24%

Aston Villa W win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueRossett Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Everton W

Aston Villa W

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · everton w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Everton W a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Everton W v Aston Villa W~~1.50 – 1.28

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~7 v 10

~~The market · Everton W win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Everton W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Everton W win	43%	43%	0
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Aston Villa W win	33%	29%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	47%	+5
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	28%	+2
Everton W or draw	67%	71%	−4
Everton W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Aston Villa W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 8.6 5.1 2.2 1 10.0 11.2 7.5 3.2 2 7.0 8.8 5.6 2.4 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Everton W down, Aston Villa W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Everton W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aston Villa W away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Everton W, 1.28 for Aston Villa W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EVE 2–1 AST · AST 3–3 EVE · AST 0–2 EVE · EVE 1–1 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 5 Sept

EVERTON W

LWWLWL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

ASTON VILLA W

DLDLDW1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	7	+3	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Arsenal W	7	−1	9
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
8	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0