Crystal Palace W v West Ham W prediction · FA WSL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Crystal Palace W 0–1 West Ham W WEST HAM W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Ham W win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.511

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Ham W win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: West Ham W was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 32–22–46
1′KICK-OFF Crystal Palace W v West Ham W
30′We published West Ham W at 46%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
30′Kelly Gago scores for West Ham W on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Crystal Palace W 0–1 West Ham W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' West Ham W win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–70
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Lexi Lloyd-Smith · Crystal Palace W
45′HALF-TIME Crystal Palace W 0–1 West Ham W
46′SECOND HALF Crystal Palace W 0–1 West Ham W
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Crystal Palace W 1–1 West Ham W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' West Ham W win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+3' Crystal Palace W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' West Ham W win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
56′We published West Ham W at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jamie-Lee Napier · Crystal Palace W
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' West Ham W win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Sierra Enge · Crystal Palace W
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Crystal Palace W · On: S. Hopcroft · Off: Sierra Enge
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' West Ham W · On: leila wandeler · Off: Seraina Piubel
69′We published West Ham W at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′We published West Ham W at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' West Ham W win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Laia Codina · West Ham W
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Crystal Palace W · On: Annabel Blanchard · Off: Bethany England
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Crystal Palace W · On: M. Sharpe · Off: Jamie-Lee Napier
82′We published West Ham W at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
89′We published West Ham W at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' West Ham W win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Crystal Palace W 0–1 West Ham W
FTCrystal Palace W 0–1 West Ham W · West Ham W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

West Ham W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crystal Palace W 32%, draw 22%, West Ham W 46%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Crystal Palace W v West Ham WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Crystal Palace W win32%

Draw22%

West Ham W win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueSelhurst Park

Line-ups

Crystal Palace W

4-4-2

West Ham W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crystal Palace W

West Ham W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Crystal Palace W	5	−6	6
12	West Ham W	5	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Crystal Palace W

4-4-2

26 Pauline Peyraud Magnin

3 J. Napier

32 M. Bartrip

6 A. Everett

22 T. Goldie

27 S. O’Brien

4 S. Enge

25 F. Tsunoda

7 L. Lloyd-Smith

19 Abbie Larkin

9 B. England

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · Annabel Blanchard

12 · C. Cosme

24 · S. Hopcroft

16 · H. Ladd

8 · M. Sharpe

10 · Kirsty Howat

29 · A. Swaby

11 · A. Weerden

30 · S. Yáñez

West Ham W

4-2-3-1

1 C. Picaud

22 N. Riesen

3 Laia Codina

28 E. Cascarino

7 I. Belloumou

8 S. Kumagai

10 K. Zelem

77 S. Piubel

4 O. Siren

20 V. Asseyi

11 K. Gago

Coach · R. Skinner

Substitutes

61 · Sude N’Gozi Öztaş

45 · R. Dowsett

2 · Y. Endo

23 · F. Morgan

13 · E. Nyström

26 · Niamh Peacock

15 · Y. Tennebø

27 · Leila Wandeler

19 · Sienna Wareing

Our number · west ham w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make West Ham W a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crystal Palace W v West Ham W~~1.42 – 1.75

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L1 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~9 v 12

~~The market · West Ham W win~~42% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · West Ham W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crystal Palace W win	32%	32%	0
Draw	22%	26%	−4
West Ham W win	46%	42%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	56%	+5
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	35%	+4
Crystal Palace W or draw	54%	58%	−4
Crystal Palace W clean sheet	18%	–	–
West Ham W clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 7.9 6.5 3.8 1 6.5 9.8 8.8 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.3 6.2 3.6 3 2.1 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crystal Palace W down, West Ham W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 697 FA WSL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 7.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crystal Palace W at home: 1.17 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 6). West Ham W away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Crystal Palace W, 1.75 for West Ham W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~7.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CRY 1–7 WES · WES 5–2 CRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept

CRYSTAL PALACE W

WDLDD1–0 · 0–0 · 0–7 · 3–3 · 1–1

WEST HAM W

LWLLL1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	5	+10	15
2	Chelsea W	5	+11	13
3	London City Lionesses W	5	+10	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	5	+8	10
5	Everton W	5	0	9
6	Liverpool W	5	+3	7
7	Manchester United W	5	−4	7
8	Arsenal W	6	−2	6
9	Crystal Palace W	5	−6	6
10	Brighton W	5	+1	5
11	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
12	West Ham W	5	−6	3
13	Aston Villa W	5	−7	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	5	−13	0