Crystal Palace W v Chelsea W prediction · FA WSL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Crystal Palace WDrawChelsea W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chelsea W 85%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelsea W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crystal Palace W 6%, draw 9%, Chelsea W 85%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Crystal Palace W v Chelsea WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Crystal Palace W win6%

Draw9%

Chelsea W win85%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSelhurst Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crystal Palace W

Chelsea W

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chelsea w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

85% The market87%

Us85%

~~Market~~87%

We make Chelsea W an 85% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–3.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crystal Palace W v Chelsea W~~0.70 – 3.38

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 16~~11 v 2

~~The market · Chelsea W win~~87% · ours 85%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chelsea W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crystal Palace W win	6%	4%	+2
Draw	9%	8%	+1
Chelsea W win	85%	87%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Both teams to score	47%	39%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	90%	89%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Crystal Palace W or draw	15%	13%	+2
Crystal Palace W clean sheet	4%	–	–
Chelsea W clean sheet	51%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 10.3%

0123450 6.2 9.5 10.3 8.8 6.21 4.2 6.7 7.0 5.7 3.82 2.5 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crystal Palace W down, Chelsea W across0–5 goals a side shown (85.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 705 FA WSL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crystal Palace W at home: 0.67 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chelsea W away: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Crystal Palace W, 3.38 for Chelsea W. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHE 5–0 CRY · CHE 4–0 CRY · CHE 1–0 CRY · CRY 0–7 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 5 Sept

CRYSTAL PALACE W

WDLDDL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–7 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

CHELSEA W

DWWWWW1–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 6–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	7	+3	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Arsenal W	7	−1	9
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
8	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0