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Chelsea W v Tottenham Hotspur W

Chelsea W

6–2Full time

Tottenham Hotspur W

FA WSL · SUN 18 OCT · Wheatsheaf Park

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Chelsea W 6–2 Tottenham Hotspur W CHELSEA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chelsea W win~~76%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.089

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chelsea W win at 76%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chelsea W 76% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–14–10
1′KICK-OFF Chelsea W v Tottenham Hotspur W
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Amanda Nildén · Tottenham Hotspur W
26′We said Chelsea W at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
26′Chelsea W ahead on 25′ through Lauren James. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Chelsea W 1–0 Tottenham Hotspur W
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Chelsea W win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
42′We said Chelsea W at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 61%. 1–1 · 61–26–12
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Chelsea W 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur W
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Chelsea W win: 76% at kick-off, 61% now
43′Matilda Vinberg scores for Tottenham Hotspur W on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 61–27–12
45′HALF-TIME Chelsea W 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur W
46′We said Chelsea W at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–29–12
46′SECOND HALF Chelsea W 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Chelsea W win: 76% at kick-off, 56% now
54′We said Chelsea W at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–34–12
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Victoria Pelova · Tottenham Hotspur W
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Chelsea W 2–1 Tottenham Hotspur W
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Chelsea W win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
59′58′: Ellie Carpenter on the scoresheet for Chelsea W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–10–2
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chelsea W · On: Maika Hamano · Off: Wieke Hendrikje Maria Kaptein
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chelsea W · On: Sjoeke Nüsken · Off: Melvine Malard
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chelsea W · On: Erin Cuthbert · Off: Lexi Potter
63′Chelsea W ahead on 62′ through Lauren James. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
63′We said Chelsea W at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
63′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Chelsea W 3–1 Tottenham Hotspur W · Lauren James
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Chelsea W win: 76% at kick-off, 99% now
67′We said Chelsea W at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Chelsea W 4–1 Tottenham Hotspur W
68′Sjoeke Nüsken scores for Chelsea W on 67′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chelsea W · On: Nathalie Bjorn · Off: Lucy Bronze
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Eveliina Summanen · Off: Victoria Pelova
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Kirsty Hanson · Off: Olivia Holdt
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Chelsea W · On: Agnes Beever-Jones · Off: Lauren James
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Lenna Gunning-Williams · Off: Matilda Vinberg
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Alice Dauphine Sombath · Off: Ella morris
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tottenham Hotspur W · On: Shekiera·Martinez · Off: cathinka tandberg
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Erin Cuthbert · Chelsea W
87′86′: Maika Hamano on the scoresheet for Chelsea W, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Chelsea W 5–1 Tottenham Hotspur W · Maika Hamano
88′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
88′7 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Chelsea W 5–2 Tottenham Hotspur W
90′Tottenham Hotspur W pull one back on 87′ through Signe Gaupset. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
92′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 6–2 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Chelsea W 6–2 Tottenham Hotspur W
93′Ellie Carpenter scores for Chelsea W on 90′ — 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Chelsea W 6–2 Tottenham Hotspur W
FTChelsea W 6–2 Tottenham Hotspur W · Chelsea W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelsea W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chelsea W 76%, draw 14%, Tottenham Hotspur W 10%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Chelsea W v Tottenham Hotspur WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chelsea W win76%

Draw14%

Tottenham Hotspur W win10%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueWheatsheaf Park

Line-ups

Chelsea W

4-1-2-1-2

Tottenham Hotspur W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chelsea W

Tottenham Hotspur W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chelsea W	5	+11	13
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	5	+8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chelsea W

4-1-2-1-2

24 H. Hampton

2 E. Carpenter

26 K. Buchanan

22 L. Bronze

15 K. McCabe

32 L. Potter

19 W. Kaptein

12 A. Thompson

21 K. Walsh

9 M. Malard

10 L. James

Coach · S. Bompastor

Substitutes

14 · N. Björn

33 · A. Beever-Jones

11 · S. Baltimore

5 · V. Buurman

8 · E. Cuthbert

16 · G. Dragoni

23 · M. Hamano

6 · S. Nüsken

1 · L. Peng

Tottenham Hotspur W

4-2-3-1

1 Lize Kop

3 Ella morris

32 T. Koga

6 Amanda Nildén

41 J. Blakstad

8 S. Gaupset

24 D. Spence

13 M. Vinberg

23 V. Pelova

11 O. Holdt

9 C. Tandberg

Coach · Martin Ho

Substitutes

4 · C. Dijkstra

18 · L. Gunning-Williams

16 · K. Hanson

19 · S. Martinez

14 · M. Nildén

12 · S. Panengstuen

5 · A. Sombath

25 · E. Summanen

22 · H. Wijk

Our number · chelsea w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

76% The market73%

Us76%

~~Market~~73%

We make Chelsea W a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chelsea W v Tottenham Hotspur W~~2.71 – 0.87

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~2 v 4

~~The market · Chelsea W win~~73% · ours 76%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chelsea W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chelsea W win	76%	73%	+3
Draw	14%	17%	−3
Tottenham Hotspur W win	10%	11%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Chelsea W or draw	90%	89%	+1
Chelsea W clean sheet	43%	–	–
Tottenham Hotspur W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%

0123450 2.6 2.8 1 7.9 6.3 2.9 2 10.2 8.7 3.8 3 9.2 7.7 3.4 4 6.3 5.2 2.2 5 3.5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Chelsea W down, Tottenham Hotspur W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 697 FA WSL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chelsea W at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tottenham Hotspur W away: 3.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Chelsea W, 0.87 for Tottenham Hotspur W. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–1 TOT · TOT 0–2 CHE · CHE 1–0 TOT · TOT 0–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 5 Sept

CHELSEA W

DWWWW1–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR W

WDWWL3–1 · 1–1 · 7–0 · 4–0 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	5	+10	15
2	Chelsea W	5	+11	13
3	London City Lionesses W	5	+10	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	5	+8	10
5	Everton W	5	0	9
6	Liverpool W	5	+3	7
7	Manchester United W	5	−4	7
8	Arsenal W	6	−2	6
9	Crystal Palace W	5	−6	6
10	Brighton W	5	+1	5
11	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
12	West Ham W	5	−6	3
13	Aston Villa W	5	−7	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	5	−13	0