Charlton Athletic W v Manchester United W prediction · FA WSL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Charlton Athletic W 1–3 Manchester United W MANCHESTER UNITED W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manchester United W win~~72%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.121

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.120

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester United W win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manchester United W was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 12–16–71
1′KICK-OFF Charlton Athletic W v Manchester United W
6′Manchester United W score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–9–87
6′We published Manchester United W at 72%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–1 · 4–9–87
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Charlton Athletic W 0–1 Manchester United W
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Manchester United W win: 72% at kick-off, 87% now
11′We published Manchester United W at 72%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Charlton Athletic W 0–2 Manchester United W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Manchester United W win: 72% at kick-off, 96% now
12′Manchester United W ahead on 10′ through Andrea Medina. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
14′Leah Mary-Jane Davidson scores for Charlton Athletic W on 13′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–9–87
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Charlton Athletic W 1–2 Manchester United W
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Manchester United W win: 72% at kick-off, 87% now
31′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–3–97
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Charlton Athletic W 1–3 Manchester United W
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Manchester United W win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
32′31′: Julia Zigiotti Olme on the scoresheet for Manchester United W, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–3–97
45′HALF-TIME Charlton Athletic W 1–3 Manchester United W
46′SECOND HALF Charlton Athletic W 1–3 Manchester United W
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Julia Zigiotti Olme · Manchester United W
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Charlton Athletic W · On: Katie Lockwood · Off: Emily van Egmond
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Manchester United W · On: Simi Awujo · Off: Julia Zigiotti Olme
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Manchester United W · On: Lea Schuller · Off: Elisabeth Terland
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Charlton Athletic W · On: Lorena Azzaro · Off: Ashleigh Neville
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Charlton Athletic W · On: Gillian Kenney · Off: Cassandra Korhonen
77′We published Manchester United W at 72%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester United W · On: Monica Jusu Bah · Off: Andrea Medina
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester United W · On: Rebeca Bernal Rodríguez · Off: Ella Toone
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Charlton Athletic W · On: Carla Humphrey · Off: K. Flannery
FTFULL TIME Charlton Athletic W 1–3 Manchester United W
FTCharlton Athletic W 1–3 Manchester United W · Manchester United W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester United W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Charlton Athletic W 12%, draw 16%, Manchester United W 72%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Charlton Athletic W v Manchester United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Charlton Athletic W win12%

Draw16%

Manchester United W win72%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueThe Oakwood

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

4-4-2

Manchester United W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Charlton Athletic W

Manchester United W

14Days since last match15

Last match: 4 Oct · FA WSL

Last match: 3 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Manchester United W	5	−4	7
14	Charlton Athletic W	5	−13	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

4-4-2

1 S. Whitehouse

29 A. Neville

5 E. N'Dow

23 L. Lobato

2 E. Mason

6 L. Davidson

22 E. van Egmond

14 K. Flannery

12 J. Hutton

16 C. Korhonen

11 L. Fitzgerald

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · Lizzie Waldie

10 · G. Kenney

8 · C. Humphrey

9 · Lorena Azzaro

24 · A. Koivunen

15 · K. J. Lockwood

21 · A. Pedersen

30 · L. Robe

17 · Kiera Skeels

Manchester United W

4-2-3-1

91 P. Tullis-Joyce

5 H. Lundkvist

4 M. Le Tissier

17 D. Janssen

2 A. Sandberg

15 J. Olme

20 H. Miyazawa

8 Jessica Park

7 E. Toone

6 Andrea Medina

10 Elisabeth Terland

Coach · Eva Olid

Substitutes

16 · R. Bernal

36 · Mared Griffiths

22 · S. Hill

23 · M. Jusu Bah

25 · J. Leitzig

24 · L. Schüller

26 · J. Simpson

13 · Simi Awujo

19 · E. Wangerheim

Our number · manchester united w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

72% The market72%

Us72%

~~Market~~72%

We make Manchester United W a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are level with the market. The model expects 0.8–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Charlton Athletic W v Manchester United W~~0.78 – 2.45

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 7~~14 v 7

~~The market · Manchester United W win~~72% · ours 72%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Manchester United W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlton Athletic W win	12%	10%	+2
Draw	16%	18%	−2
Manchester United W win	72%	72%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+4
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	36%	+4
Charlton Athletic W or draw	28%	28%	0
Charlton Athletic W clean sheet	11%	–	–
Manchester United W clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.3%

0123450 4.3 10.2 11.3 9.1 6.0 3.41 4.0 7.4 8.4 6.4 3.9 2.12 3.3 3.5 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlton Athletic W down, Manchester United W across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 697 FA WSL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Charlton Athletic W at home: 0.25 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Manchester United W away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Charlton Athletic W, 2.45 for Manchester United W. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 4 Sept

CHARLTON ATHLETIC W

LLLLL0–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–5

MANCHESTER UNITED W

LLDWW1–2 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	5	+10	15
2	Chelsea W	5	+11	13
3	London City Lionesses W	5	+10	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	5	+8	10
5	Everton W	5	0	9
6	Liverpool W	5	+3	7
7	Manchester United W	5	−4	7
8	Arsenal W	6	−2	6
9	Crystal Palace W	5	−6	6
10	Brighton W	5	+1	5
11	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
12	West Ham W	5	−6	3
13	Aston Villa W	5	−7	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	5	−13	0