Brighton W v West Ham W prediction · FA WSL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Brighton W 3–0 West Ham W BRIGHTON W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brighton W win~~49%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.385

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.162

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton W win at 49%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Brighton W 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
2′KICK-OFF Brighton W v West Ham W
29′We said Brighton W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–9
29′Brighton W find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–9
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Brighton W 1–0 West Ham W
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Brighton W win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
39′We said Brighton W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Brighton W 1–0 West Ham W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' West Ham W · On: leila wandeler · Off: Kelly Gago
46′SECOND HALF Brighton W 1–0 West Ham W
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' O. Garcia · Brighton W
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Brighton W win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
62′We said Brighton W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Brighton W · On: Marit·Auee · Off: Maelys Mpomé
64′We said Brighton W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Brighton W 2–0 West Ham W
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Brighton W win: 49% at kick-off, 97% now
65′Francesca Kirby scores for Brighton W on 63′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
66′We said Brighton W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Brighton W 3–0 West Ham W
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Brighton W win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
68′66′: Kiko Seike on the scoresheet for Brighton W, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' West Ham W · On: Seraina Piubel · Off: Saki Kumagai
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' West Ham W · On: Ffion Alys Morgan · Off: Eva Nyström
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Brighton W · On: Emily murphy · Off: O. Garcia
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Brighton W · On: Olaug tvedten · Off: Francesca Kirby
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Brighton W · On: Sophie Peskett · Off: Kiko Seike
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brighton W · On: R. Rayner · Off: Jelena Cankovic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' West Ham W · On: Ebony Salmon · Off: Viviane Asseyi
92′West Ham W have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Brighton W 3–0 West Ham W
FTBrighton W 3–0 West Ham W · Brighton W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brighton W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brighton W 49%, draw 23%, West Ham W 28%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Brighton W v West Ham WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Brighton W win49%

Draw23%

West Ham W win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAmerican Express Stadium

Line-ups

Brighton W

4-4-2

West Ham W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brighton W

West Ham W

6Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brighton W

4-4-2

16 C. Nnadozie

5 M. Mpomé

18 C. Hayes

2 M. Vanegas

19 M. Olislagers

11 K. Seike

8 M. Symonds

15 E. Joramo

21 O. Garcia

14 F. Kirby

10 J. Čanković

Coach · Dario Vidosic

Substitutes

30 · E. Heeps

6 · Gabrielle George

23 · M. Auée

28 · M. Loeck

35 · Emily murphy

27 · S. Peskett

17 · R. Rayner

20 · O. Tvedten

41 · T. Warren

West Ham W

4-2-3-1

1 C. Picaud

22 N. Riesen

3 Laia Codina

28 E. Cascarino

7 I. Belloumou

8 S. Kumagai

10 K. Zelem

13 E. Nyström

4 O. Siren

20 V. Asseyi

11 K. Gago

Coach · R. Skinner

Substitutes

19 · Sienna Wareing

2 · Y. Endo

23 · F. Morgan

26 · Niamh Peacock

77 · S. Piubel

17 · E. Salmon

15 · Y. Tennebø

25 · M. Walsh

27 · Leila Wandeler

Our number · brighton w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market67%

Us49%

~~Market~~67%

We make Brighton W a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brighton W v West Ham W~~1.72 – 1.23

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~12 v 9

~~The market · Brighton W win~~67% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brighton W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brighton W win	49%	67%	−18
Draw	23%	19%	+4
West Ham W win	28%	14%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	56%	65%	−9
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	83%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
Brighton W or draw	72%	86%	−14
Brighton W clean sheet	30%	–	–
West Ham W clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 7.1 4.0 1 9.7 10.5 6.7 2.8 2 7.8 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 4.5 5.4 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brighton W down, West Ham W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brighton W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). West Ham W away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Brighton W, 1.23 for West Ham W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WES 1–2 BRI · WES 3–2 BRI · WES 2–1 BRI · BRI 4–1 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept

BRIGHTON W

LDDLWL0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 5–1 · 2–3

WEST HAM W

LWLLLW1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	6	+4	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Everton W	6	−1	9
7	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
8	Arsenal W	6	−2	6
9	West Ham W	6	−5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	Brighton W	6	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0