Birmingham City W v Charlton Athletic W prediction · FA WSL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Birmingham City WDrawCharlton Athletic W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Birmingham City W 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Birmingham City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Birmingham City W 57%, draw 21%, Charlton Athletic W 22%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Birmingham City W v Charlton Athletic WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Birmingham City W win57%

Draw21%

Charlton Athletic W win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueThe DCS Stadium

RefereeMegan Wilson

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Birmingham City W

Charlton Athletic W

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · birmingham city w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make Birmingham City W a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Birmingham City W v Charlton Athletic W~~1.97 – 1.12

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~13 v 14

~~The market · Birmingham City W win~~58% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Birmingham City W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Birmingham City W win	57%	58%	−1
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Charlton Athletic W win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	55%	+4
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
Birmingham City W or draw	78%	81%	−3
Birmingham City W clean sheet	34%	–	–
Charlton Athletic W clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 9.8%

0123450 4.6 5.9 3.0 1 9.8 9.3 5.5 2.1 2 8.8 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 5.7 6.0 3.4 4 2.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Birmingham City W down, Charlton Athletic W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 705 FA WSL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Birmingham City W at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Charlton Athletic W away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Birmingham City W, 1.12 for Charlton Athletic W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–2 BIR · BIR 0–1 CHA · CHA 1–1 BIR · BIR 0–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept

BIRMINGHAM CITY W

LDLDLD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

CHARLTON ATHLETIC W

LLLLLL0–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	6	+11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	+15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	+11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	7	+3	10
5	Manchester United W	6	−2	10
6	Arsenal W	7	−1	9
7	Everton W	6	−1	9
8	Brighton W	7	+3	8
9	Liverpool W	6	+2	7
10	Aston Villa W	6	−6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	−7	6
12	West Ham W	7	−8	6
13	Birmingham City W	6	−5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	−15	0