Arsenal W v Birmingham City W prediction · FA WSL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W ARSENAL W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal W win~~80%

~~The market said~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.429

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal W win at 80%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal W 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–12–8
2′KICK-OFF Arsenal W v Birmingham City W
33′Arsenal W have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 70–20–10
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 70% now
38′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 68%. 0–0 · 68–22–10
42′8 shots for Arsenal W, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 66–24–10
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal W 0–0 Birmingham City W
46′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–26–10
47′SECOND HALF Arsenal W 0–0 Birmingham City W
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 60% now
53′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–31–40
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Arsenal W 0–1 Birmingham City W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 29% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Birmingham City W win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Arsenal W win 29%)
54′Oceane Hurtre scores for Birmingham City W on 53′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–31–41
58′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–31–44
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Birmingham City W · On: Lee Geum-Min · Off: Suzu Amano
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 20% now
64′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–31–50
67′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–44–9
67′66′: Olivia Smith on the scoresheet for Arsenal W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–44–9
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 47% now
68′14 shots for Arsenal W, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 45–46–9
69′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–47–9
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Birmingham City W win 9%)
71′16 shots for Arsenal W, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 42–50–9
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 40% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Georgia Stanway · Arsenal W
73′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–53–8
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Neve Grace Herron · Birmingham City W
76′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–59–7
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 30% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arsenal W · On: Géraldine Reuteler · Off: Stina Blackstenius
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arsenal W · On: Emily Fox · Off: Smilla Holmberg
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Birmingham City W · On: Veatriki Sarri · Off: Oceane Hurtre
81′Arsenal W have had 21 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 24–70–6
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 20% now
87′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–83–3
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Arsenal W · On: Caitlin Foord · Off: Lisa Baum
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Arsenal W · On: Elisa De Almeida · Off: Ona Batlle
90′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–2
90′24 shots for Arsenal W, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 9–88–2
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Arsenal W win: 80% at kick-off, 9% now
94′We said Arsenal W at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–96–1
FTFULL TIME Arsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W
FTArsenal W 1–1 Birmingham City W · Arsenal W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal W 80%, draw 12%, Birmingham City W 8%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal W v Birmingham City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal W win80%

Draw12%

Birmingham City W win8%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 6

VenueMeadow Park

Line-ups

Arsenal W

4-2-3-1

Birmingham City W

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal W

Birmingham City W

13Days since last match13

Last match: 4 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Arsenal W	5	−2	5
13	Birmingham City W	5	−5	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal W

4-2-3-1

16 Misa Rodriguez

31 S. Holmberg

6 L. Williamson

3 L. Wubben-Moy

22 Ona Batlle

4 G. Stanway

32 K. Cooney-Cross

19 L. Baum

23 A. Russo

11 Olivia Smith

25 S. Blackstenius

Coach · R. Slegers

Substitutes

40 · I Damm

28 · A. Borbe

7 · S. Catley

9 · C. Foord

2 · E. Fox

5 · É. de Almeida

24 · Taylor Hinds

14 · G. Reuteler

Birmingham City W

4-4-1-1

23 S. Baggaley

18 R. McKenna

6 S. Cooke

21 M. Turner

30 N. Herron

22 Oceane Hurtre

26 Asato Miyagawa

8 L. Naalsund

3 Marie Levasseur

14 S. Amano

16 L. Crosthwaite

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · Chelsea Cornet

2 · Martha Harris

15 · R. Holloway

7 · Lee Geum-Min

10 · W. Leidhammar

4 · J. Rastocle

27 · V. Sarri

40 · K. Startup

1 · L Thomas

Our number · arsenal w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

80% The market86%

Us80%

~~Market~~86%

We make Arsenal W an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal W v Birmingham City W~~3.00 – 0.76

~~Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 2~~10 v 13

~~The market · Arsenal W win~~86% · ours 80%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal W win	80%	86%	−6
Draw	12%	9%	+3
Birmingham City W win	8%	5%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	47%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Arsenal W or draw	92%	95%	−3
Arsenal W clean sheet	48%	–	–
Birmingham City W clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 2.4 2.3 1 7.4 5.3 2.3 2 10.3 7.6 3.1 3 10.1 7.2 2.8 4 7.7 5.3 2.0 5 4.9 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal W down, Birmingham City W across0–5 goals a side shown (90.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 696 FA WSL matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal W at home: 3.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham City W away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.00 goals for Arsenal W, 0.76 for Birmingham City W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARS 4–2 BIR · BIR 2–0 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA WSL this season · since 6 Sept

ARSENAL W

WDDLL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–4

BIRMINGHAM CITY W

LDLDL1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City W	5	+10	15
2	Chelsea W	5	+11	13
3	London City Lionesses W	5	+10	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	5	+8	10
5	Everton W	5	0	9
6	Liverpool W	5	+3	7
7	Manchester United W	5	−4	7
8	Crystal Palace W	5	−6	6
9	Brighton W	5	+1	5
10	Arsenal W	5	−2	5
11	West Ham W	5	−6	3
12	Aston Villa W	5	−7	3
13	Birmingham City W	5	−5	2
14	Charlton Athletic W	5	−13	0