Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Whitehawk v St Albans City

Back
England flag

Whitehawk v St Albans City

Whitehawk
1–0Full time
St Albans City

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Whitehawk 1–0 St Albans City ST ALBANS CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said St Albans City win51%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.849
The market’s Brier score0.885

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Albans City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Whitehawk 27%, draw 22%, St Albans City 51%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Whitehawk v St Albans CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Whitehawk win27%
Draw22%
St Albans City win51%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Whitehawk

St Albans City

7Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st albans city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
51% The market51%
Us51%
Market51%

We make St Albans City a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Whitehawk v St Albans City1.25 – 1.83
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · St Albans City win51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · St Albans City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Whitehawk win27%25%+2
Draw22%24%−2
St Albans City win51%51%0
Over 2.5 goals59%61%−2
Both teams to score59%62%−3
Over 1.5 goals80%80%0
Over 3.5 goals37%42%−5
Whitehawk or draw49%49%0
Whitehawk clean sheet17%––
St Albans City clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.4 8.9 7.7 4.7 2.2 1 6.3 10.0 9.3 5.7 2.7 2 3.7 6.5 5.8 3.5 3 2.7 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Whitehawk down, St Albans City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsSTA 3–5 WHI · WHI 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

WHITEHAWK

W4–1

ST ALBANS CITY

W4–1