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Takeley v Chertsey Town

Takeley
0–4Full time
Chertsey Town

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Takeley 0–4 Chertsey Town CHERTSEY TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chertsey Town win65%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.182
The market’s Brier score0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chertsey Town win at 65%.
  2. 1′A goal for Chertsey Town on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–10–86
  3. 1′We published Chertsey Town at 65%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 4–10–86
  4. 1′KICK-OFF Takeley v Chertsey Town
  5. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 3–11–85
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Takeley 0–1 Chertsey Town
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Takeley 0–1 Chertsey Town
  8. 52′Chertsey Town score on 52′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  9. 52′We published Chertsey Town at 65%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  10. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Takeley 0–2 Chertsey Town
  11. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Chertsey Town win: 65% at kick-off, 98% now
  12. 60′Chertsey Town find the net on 59′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  13. 60′We published Chertsey Town at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  14. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Takeley 0–3 Chertsey Town
  15. 61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  16. 90′A goal for Chertsey Town on 90′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  17. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Takeley 0–4 Chertsey Town
  18. 91′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  19. FTFULL TIME Takeley 0–4 Chertsey Town
  20. FTTakeley 0–4 Chertsey Town · Chertsey Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chertsey Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Takeley 14%, draw 21%, Chertsey Town 65%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Takeley v Chertsey TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Takeley win14%
Draw21%
Chertsey Town win65%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Takeley

Chertsey Town

28Days since last match4

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

0Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chertsey town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off
65% The market58%
Us65%
Market58%

We make Chertsey Town a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Takeley v Chertsey Town0.82 – 2.04
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 AugW3 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Chertsey Town win58% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Chertsey Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Takeley win14%20%−6
Draw21%22%−1
Chertsey Town win65%58%+7
Over 2.5 goals55%65%−10
Both teams to score49%62%−13
Over 1.5 goals78%82%−4
Over 3.5 goals32%45%−13
Takeley or draw35%42%−7
Takeley clean sheet13%––
Chertsey Town clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.9%
0123450 6.0 11.3 11.9 8.1 4.1 1 4.4 9.9 9.8 6.7 3.4 2 3.9 4.0 2.7 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Takeley down, Chertsey Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug

TAKELEY

WWW2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

CHERTSEY TOWN

D2–2