Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Rylands v Guiseley AFC

Back
England flag

Rylands v Guiseley AFC

Rylands
1–3Full time
Guiseley AFC

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Rylands 1–3 Guiseley AFC RYLANDS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rylands win45%
The market said24%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.742
The market’s Brier score0.369

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rylands are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rylands 45%, draw 25%, Guiseley AFC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Rylands v Guiseley AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rylands win45%
Draw25%
Guiseley AFC win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rylands

Guiseley AFC

11Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rylands winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
45% The market24%
Us45%
Market24%

We make Rylands a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rylands v Guiseley AFC1.52 – 1.21
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Rylands win24% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Rylands win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rylands win45%24%+21
Draw25%25%0
Guiseley AFC win31%50%−19
Over 2.5 goals51%54%−3
Both teams to score54%56%−2
Over 1.5 goals75%76%−1
Over 3.5 goals29%33%−4
Rylands or draw69%50%+19
Rylands clean sheet30%––
Guiseley AFC clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.5 8.3 4.8 1 10.3 11.6 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.9 5.4 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rylands down, Guiseley AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.53 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsRYL 1–0 GUI · GUI 0–1 RYL · RYL 1–4 GUI · RYL 1–1 GUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

RYLANDS

W3–1

GUISELEY AFC

W4–2