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Redditch United v Gloucester City

Redditch United
2–2After penalties
Gloucester City

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Redditch United 3–2 Gloucester City REDDITCH UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Redditch United win39%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.559
The market’s Brier score0.592

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 3–2, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Redditch United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Redditch United 39%, draw 26%, Gloucester City 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Redditch United v Gloucester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Redditch United win39%
Draw26%
Gloucester City win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Redditch United

Gloucester City

11Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redditch united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market38%
Us39%
Market38%

We make Redditch United a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Redditch United v Gloucester City1.49 – 1.41
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Redditch United win38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Redditch United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Redditch United win39%38%+1
Draw26%24%+2
Gloucester City win35%38%−3
Over 2.5 goals55%62%−7
Both teams to score59%63%−4
Over 1.5 goals79%80%−1
Over 3.5 goals33%41%−8
Redditch United or draw65%62%+3
Redditch United clean sheet24%––
Gloucester City clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 5.9 7.3 5.4 2.5 1 7.8 11.9 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.6 6.1 2.8 3 3.1 4.3 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Redditch United down, Gloucester City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

REDDITCH UNITED

W1–0

GLOUCESTER CITY

W4–0