Mickleover Sports v Alfreton Town
Mickleover SportsAlfreton TownFA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Alfreton Town win at 52%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Alfreton Town 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 23–25–51
- 1′KICK-OFF Mickleover Sports v Alfreton Town
- 35′A goal for Mickleover Sports on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 56–26–17
- 35′We said Alfreton Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 56–26–17
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mickleover Sports 1–0 Alfreton Town
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 17% now
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Mickleover Sports win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Alfreton Town win 44%)
- 36′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 57–26–17
- 43′We said Alfreton Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
- 45′HALF-TIME Mickleover Sports 1–0 Alfreton Town
- 46′SECOND HALF Mickleover Sports 1–0 Alfreton Town
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
- 50′Alfreton Town score on 49′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–42–38
- 50′We said Alfreton Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 20–42–38
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Mickleover Sports 1–1 Alfreton Town
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 38% now
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Mickleover Sports win 62%)
- 57′We said Alfreton Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 19–47–34
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
- 65′We said Alfreton Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 17–54–29
- 73′We said Alfreton Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 13–64–23
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
- 77′Alfreton Town find the net on 76′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
- 77′We said Alfreton Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–2 · 1–10–89
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Mickleover Sports 1–2 Alfreton Town
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 89% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Alfreton Town win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 69%)
- 78′We said Alfreton Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
- 78′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–10–90
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Alfreton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
- 85′We said Alfreton Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- FTFULL TIME Mickleover Sports 1–2 Alfreton Town
- FTMickleover Sports 1–2 Alfreton Town · Alfreton Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Alfreton Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Mickleover Sports 23%, draw 25%, Alfreton Town 52%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Mickleover Sports win23%Alfreton Town win52%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
Round1/128-finals
Match timeline
All events
Mickleover SportsMINAlfreton TownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Mickleover Sports
Alfreton Town
Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy
Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Alfreton Town a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mickleover Sports win | 23% | 30% | −7 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Alfreton Town win | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 38% | −10 |
| Mickleover Sports or draw | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Mickleover Sports clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Alfreton Town clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug
MICKLEOVER SPORTS
ALFRETON TOWN